Australian Dollar rallied broadly after RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivered hawkish remarks that reintroduced a genuine possibility of a rate hike at the March meeting. By describing the decision as “live” and warning against assuming a hold, Bullock unsettled prior market consensus and injected fresh upside risk into rate expectations. The shift immediately translated into stronger AUD performance across the board.
AUD/JPY led the advance, extending its uptrend and breached 112 level. The move reflects not only renewed tightening speculation from the RBA, but also relatively softer Yen dynamics amid delayed tightening expectations from Tokyo.
Technically, as long as 110.03 support holds, near-term bias remains firmly to the upside. The next target lies at 38.2% projection of 96.24 to 107.67 from 110.78 at 113.22, which aligns closely with the upper boundary of the near term rising channel. That area could present initial resistance and cap gains on first test, particularly if momentum indicators begin to stretch.
However, decisive break above 113.22 would open the path toward 61.8% projection at 116.65 before topping around there. That level represents a much more formidable barrier, coinciding almost precisely with the long-term fibonacci level, 61.8% projection of 59.85 (2020 low) to 109.36 (2024 high) from 86.03 (2025 low) at 116.62.
