A little under three months remain of another intriguing Premier League season, with at least six teams fighting for their top-flight lives. Wolverhampton Wanderers are all but gone, still needing another point to match Derby County’s unwanted record-low of 11 points from 2007-08, but there have been flickers of life from the two sides above them — Burnley and West Ham United — to suggest that they won’t be cut adrift.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a genuine relegation scrap in the Premier League, as last season’s stragglers descended with a combined total of 59 points, the lowest in the competition’s history. Opta’s projections suggest that things should be relatively straightforward this time around too, with seven of every 10 of its simulations ending with the current bottom three going down at the end of the campaign.
But stranger things have happened, and as the pressure ramps up on the likes of Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur and Leeds United, the script is sure to take a few unexpected twists.
Anyone can beat anyone in the Premier League, but the advantage of a ‘kind’ fixture list can’t be understated. Leeds boast the easiest run-in per Opta’s Power Rankings, with several opportunities to ease away from the relegation picture in front of their own fans.
On the flip side, West Ham face tricky trips to Liverpool and Newcastle United and host the current top two.
Will the season peter out for Wolves, Burnley and West Ham as expected? Or can any of them claw their way out?
Here, The Athletic takes a look at the tactical themes and underlying numbers that will shape the relegation fight.
Leeds
Current position: 15th
Predicted position: 15th
Sitting in 15th with a six-point buffer to the relegation zone, Leeds are, for now, the safest of the clubs listed here. And beyond this superior points tally, there are plenty of other reasons for optimism.
Compared to the turbulence below them, Daniel Farke’s side have been the poster team for calm stability. This is a team that creates at roughly the same level as it concedes, ranking 11th for non-penalty expected goal difference (denoting the quality of chances they create and concede).
Key to their strong position is that, unlike their relegation rivals, Leeds rarely concede cheap goals. No Premier League side has made fewer errors leading to goals (three) or errors leading to shots (10).
This is a team that takes few risks in build-up: only league leaders Arsenal and Everton have conceded fewer than Leeds’ 84 turnovers in their own defensive third.
They do not overcommit going forward either; having conceded just once on the break, when Mathys Tel scored for Tottenham in Leeds’ 3-1 loss at Elland Road in October.
The flip-side to this cautious on-ball approach is that their attack can look stifled, often reliant on set pieces, which account for 13 of their 37 goals this season. Despite a summer recruitment strategy predicated on height and physicality, they have been surprisingly vulnerable in defending these dead-ball situations, conceding 6.5 goals per 100 set pieces, with only Forest and Liverpool faring worse.
Still, with their current head start and robust approach, they should have more than enough to stay up, with games against four of the current bottom five to boot.
Tottenham
Current position: 16th
Predicted position: 16th
Top four in the Champions League league phase and bottom five back home; it’s been another one of those seasons for Tottenham.
A decision to appoint the more pragmatic Thomas Frank in the summer was made with the aim of eliminating those inconsistencies, restoring more balance to a side that swung from the sublime to the ridiculous under the all-out approach of Ange Postecoglou.
But, as we can see from the rolling xG chart below, Frank was not able to improve Spurs defensively, while they never really clicked when it came to consistently creating chances from open play.
Igor Tudor represents another change of tack, a manager famed for his aggressive man-marking approach. Such adventure and risk without the ball was evident throughout his first game in charge — a 4-1 home defeat by Arsenal — as his side flew out of the traps. In the sequence below, triggered by a backwards pass, five players rush forward to apply pressure before Micky van de Ven slides out of defence to intercept a pass to Bukayo Saka.
When it clicks, it can be adrenaline-pumping and smother opposition build-up at source. But Tudor’s sides can often overcommit, with one mistimed jump forward leaving spaces in behind that well-drilled teams, such as Arsenal, can eventually play their way through.
Tudor’s arrival also likely brings a permanent change in the setup with the ball, preferring a back three throughout his career. It’s a system that Frank trialled towards the end of his tenure with relative success — Dominic Solanke was able to bring Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert into the game from their No 10 positions, while wing-backs pushed on and got into dangerous attacking areas — but injuries quickly curtailed those promising signs.
Pedro Porro’s imminent return will give Spurs more thrust and creativity from wing-back, as will Destiny Udogie on the opposite side. Likewise, Mohammed Kudus, Cristian Romero and Lucas Bergvall will all be welcome additions to Tudor’s squad once they are available to play.
But results need to come quickly for Spurs — starting at Fulham on Sunday — if they are to avoid a disastrous drop.
Nottingham Forest
Current position: 17th
Predicted position: 17th
It is difficult to find a coherent pattern in Nottingham Forest’s misfortunes, given that they are now on their fourth permanent manager in the dugout this season — a Premier League record.
The switch from deep-block, counter-attacking football under Nuno Espirito Santo to open, expansive football under Ange Postecoglou — and back again under Sean Dyche — is as confusing as it sounds, with Vitor Pereira now tasked with keeping Forest at arm’s length of the dotted line directly below.
For those who require a refresher of the contrasting approaches taken by each of their three previous managers, cast your eye over the metrics below that explore Forest’s vital details. You can forgive their players for being unsure of the core tactical principles when they are changing managers so often.
Despite their loss, Pereira’s first Premier League game against Liverpool actually provided reasons to be optimistic. There was a bite and urgency in the midfield and a healthy smattering of well-worked chances, even if — much like Dyche’s final game against Wolves — they were ultimately profligate in front of goal.
Despite a fairly bloated squad — only West Ham have used more than Forest’s 31 players in the Premier League — there has actually been a degree of consistency in Forest’s line-up this season.
No side has named an unchanged starting XI more than Forest’s seven occasions, with the spine of Matz Sels, Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo, Elliot Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White and Igor Jesus running through the heart of the pitch when all are fit and available.
Amidst the chaos that swirls around the club, that familiarity between team-mates is likely to be a key factor in staving off relegation. Narratives that the squad is “too good to go down” has its merit when looking through the list of players, but this is not the time for anyone in the East Midlands to rest on their laurels.
With only two league wins since Christmas, Forest need points… fast.
West Ham
Current position: 18th
Predicted position: 18th
West Ham’s season has largely been defined by fan protests about ownership, and a squad lacking depth, legs in midfield, conviction in defence and structure in attack. Struggles from set pieces at either end have been a significant factor too.
That said, Nuno’s team have turned a corner since a 2-1 defeat by his previous side, Forest, on January 6. They have picked up 11 points from their last six matches, with only Manchester United (16), Chelsea (14), Manchester City (13) and Bournemouth (12) managing more in this period.
A few traits from Nuno’s 2024-25 Forest side have shone during this spell. West Ham have defaulted to playing out wide more often, with El Hadji Malick Diouf and Crysencio Summerville on the left and Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Jarrod Bowen on the right developing exciting partnerships. They have trailed only Spurs in open-play crossing accuracy (30 per cent) in the last six matches.
In January arrival Taty Castellanos they have a target man who is proficient at meeting crosses. He has attempted 10 first-time shots and five headers across the last six matches, scoring with one in the 2-0 win over Burnley.
And across the last six matches, West Ham’s direct speed (metres the ball is progressed towards the opposition goal per second) of 1.6 and 2.7 passes per sequence of possession are close to those of 2024-25 Forest (1.7 and 2.8 respectively), who finished seventh.
As they did with Forest, who struggled at set pieces prior to his arrival, Nuno’s coaching staff have gradually improved West Ham at both ends. They have generated 3.6xG overall from set plays in the last six games after generating just 6.4xG in the first 21 league games. Having conceded 10 goals from corners in their first 17 matches, West Ham have allowed just two in the last 10. Konstantinos Mavropanos has led the defence solidly, winning 80 per cent of his aerial duels and making 10 interceptions over the last six matches.
West Ham’s immediate schedule is a concern, with games against Liverpool, Fulham, Manchester City and Aston Villa before the March international break. They then have three winnable matches against Wolves, Crystal Palace and Everton.
Burnley
Current position: 19th
Predicted position: 19th
Burnley should be rather pleased with their 2026, having taken points off Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea since the turn of the year. Sadly, that is where the optimism ends, with Scott Parker’s side given a 98 per cent likelihood of returning to the Championship, per Opta’s projections.
Just four league wins all season make that projection unsurprising, and there is little evidence to suggest that Burnley have been unlucky upon their return to the Premier League. Mapping out their expected goal difference across each league game paints a bleak landscape.
Dominant sides will display more games in the upper-left part of the graphic below — creating more chances than they concede. Average teams will have more of a mixed picture, but Burnley’s form suggests the process has been bad in both boxes.
Even compared with their closest relegation rivals — who have a healthy number of games “above the dotted line” — Burnley’s games have rarely shown them to be the side most deserving of victory.
It is not as though Parker’s side has been comprehensively dispatched in every game. There have only been three occasions where they have lost by three goals or more across 2025-26.
Their key issue has been their toothless attack. Forget goals, Burnley’s share of 31 per cent of all possessions ending in a shot is the lowest in the Premier League this season. Despite an improvement in their overall form this year, their fate has looked sealed for quite some time.
Wolves
Current position: 20th
Predicted position: 20th
Still 17 points adrift of safety, Wolves look set to end a memorable eight-season stay in the Premier League that saw them repeatedly trouble the elite and even make the Europa League quarter-finals. Among non-‘Big Six’ teams, only Brighton & Hove Albion (98) have taken more points off Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham than Wolves’ 84 since Wolves returned to the top flight for the 2018-19 season.
Wolves’ issues began much before 2025-26 as the graph below shows, having flirted with relegation last season before a brief spell of good form under Pereira and a 14th-place finish in 2023-24.
Wolves sold their two most influential players in Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri, along with losing captain Nelson Semedo and Pablo Sarabia, at the end of 2024-25. A board that previously went after players closer to peak age who had thrived in other top European leagues opted instead to invest in youth and talent, which has not paid off.
There have been a few positives. Hugo Bueno has shown flashes from left-back with his two-footed crossing and excellent goal against Arsenal. Bueno and midfield duo Andre and Joao Gomes could easily attract interest from top-flight suitors, alongside 18-year-old winger Mateus Mane.
But barring a miracle, Rob Edwards’ side are down.
