Welcome to week 28 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where the subscribers’ surge continues.
Last week’s guest subscriber, Arsenal fan Jack, got two results spot-on, the fourth time in six weeks that the readers have outperformed the rest of us.
At the halfway stage, I was top of the table, feeling smug, and the subscribers were hopelessly adrift at the bottom.
But how the tables have turned. Six-year-old Wilfred is now leading the way and the subscribers are hot on his heels, leaving me in a battle with the algorithm to try to avoid the wooden spoon.
Each week since the season began in August, four of us — Wilfred, a guest subscriber on rotation, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results.
We are awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so Jack picked up not one but two four-pointers (Aston Villa 1-1 Leeds United and Crystal Palace 1-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers) while the algorithm got four points for being the only one to back a 2-1 win for Manchester City over Newcastle United.
I got five correct results, but no correct results. And to give an insight into how this whole thing has got inside my head, I found myself praying for Leeds to hold on for a 1-1 draw at Aston Villa — thinking I had, in a moment of inspiration, predicted precisely that — only to look back afterwards and see that I had in fact gone for a 2-1 win. Ah well.
Nobody saw Burnley’s draw at Chelsea coming. Likewise, those wins for Fulham and out-of-sorts Brighton & Hove Albion at Sunderland and Brentford. It really is a strange season. That is my excuse for constantly getting things wrong.
This week’s guest subscriber is Adam, a 37-year-old Newcastle fan from lovely Kildare, Ireland. Good luck, Adam.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Fulham vs Tottenham Hotspur, Sunday, 2pm UK/10am ET
Adam says: With Tottenham in freefall, this game is the first real opportunity to see if Igor Tudor can actually turn things around. I don’t think he can, as their horrendous injury list and the even more atrocious form of their available players leave them vulnerable to a smart, compact Fulham, who are coming off an impressive win and will have too much for Spurs.
Fulham 2-1 Tottenham
Oli says: They’ve won just two of their last 18 Premier League games and, while they still have a four-point cushion above the relegation zone, they just don’t look like a team capable of going to Fulham and scrapping for three points. Do I think they’ll go down? At this point, no. But with the injury crisis showing no sign of clearing, things might get worse before they get better.
Fulham 1-0 Tottenham
Oli’s other predictions
Wolves vs Aston Villa
Tim Spiers wrote an excellent piece in 2019 about this fixture, what fuels the rivalry and whether 13 miles is too great a distance for a derby. The two sets of supporters should enjoy it while they can, given that relegation looks inevitable for Wolves. Villa have not relished their trips to Molineux since their promotion in 2019 — one win, one draw, four defeats — but, despite the inconsistency of recent weeks, they should fancy their chances here.
Wolves 1-3 Aston Villa
Bournemouth vs Sunderland
The other day, I found myself studying a form table from the start of November, which highlighted Tottenham’s awful form over that period (12 points from 18 games). More surprising was that only three teams (Tottenham, Burnley and Wolves) had won fewer points than Sunderland over that period. Nineteen points from 18 games is still creditable for a newly promoted team, but it illustrates how gravity has eventually caught up with them after their remarkable start to the campaign. Also surprising is that Bournemouth are 16th in that form table (20 points from 18 games), but perhaps more relevant is that they are unbeaten in their last seven. They look equipped to make it eight.
Bournemouth 1-0 Sunderland
Burnley vs Brentford
Brentford remind me slightly of the Burnley team that came seventh under Sean Dyche in 2017-18 — physical, powerful, spirited, extremely organised — but with much greater attacking quality in Kevin Schade, Mikkel Damsgaard, Dango Ouattara and Igor Thiago. Burnley finished seventh that season while averaging less than a goal per game. Brentford are far more exciting and potent, but the same core principles apply: “Legs, hearts, minds,” to borrow a Dyche mantra from that period. I was going to put this down as a draw, reflecting my regard for Burnley’s persistent qualities, but I’ve just talked myself into an away win.
Burnley 1-2 Brentford
Liverpool vs West Ham United
Liverpool have won their last two and have a relatively gentle run of games coming up — West Ham, Wolves, Tottenham, Brighton, Fulham — but nothing is straightforward for Arne Slot’s team these days. Struggling teams have frustrated them at Anfield this season and West Ham, suddenly in a more serious frame of mind, could feasibly do likewise. I’ll go with a Liverpool win, but it will be tight and nervy and it might require Slot to summon Rio Ngumoha from the bench again.
Liverpool 2-1 West Ham
Newcastle vs Everton
How best to sum up Newcastle’s form? Is it four wins in the last five games in all competitions? Or is it four defeats in the last five Premier League games? Neither of those lines offers an accurate picture, but Eddie Howe’s team have enough about them, even in a difficult season, to ensure that the good outweighs the bad. It’s a similar story with Everton: five Premier League games unbeaten, followed by back-to-back defeats. It’s an unforgiving league at the moment. Almost every game is a battle.
Newcastle 2-1 Everton
Leeds vs Manchester City
Pep Guardiola says he expects Manchester City to drop points during the run-in for the Premier League title and, realistically, so do I. But when? The trip to Elland Road is certainly among the toughest of their final 11 games, with Leeds beaten in just two of their last 14 Premier League matches, but on balance, I fancy City to get the win that would put more pressure on Arsenal before their game on Sunday.
Leeds 1-2 Manchester City
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
I really haven’t taken seriously the idea of Nottingham Forest getting relegated, but I’m suddenly looking at their fixture list and wondering which of their remaining games look straightforward. Very few is the answer. This is one of the gentler ones, but it really doesn’t help Forest that it comes so soon after a Europa League play-off second leg against Fenerbahce. Nor is it likely to help them that Brighton won last week, easing the sense of gloom that had been gathering at the Amex. I’m really torn on this one, so I’ll say a draw.
Brighton 1-1 Nottingham Forest
Manchester United 2-0 Crystal Palace
When Ruben Amorim was sacked as Manchester United manager on January 5, Crystal Palace’s Oliver Glasner was immediately installed as the bookmakers’ favourite to succeed him. Few would have imagined that Glasner’s standing among Palace’s supporters would have been so badly damaged — by a combination of poor results and his all-too-candid pronouncements about his and the club’s future — or that United’s fortunes would have improved so dramatically under Michael Carrick. Palace have recovered slightly with wins against Brighton and Wolves, but I can’t look beyond a United win here.
Manchester United 2-0 Crystal Palace
Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea
Every Arsenal game at the moment feels like a do-or-die scenario. A five-point lead sounds substantial, but not when, like last weekend, Manchester City play a day earlier and win to cut it down to two. Arsenal have added to that tension by dropping points over the last month or two, so they have to live with it and learn to handle it. I still lean towards them coping with that pressure. Some can question their mentality, but I regard this Arsenal squad as a strong, powerful collective that can handle big games. This Chelsea side? Not so much.
Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea
