Strap yourselves in, we have ourselves a proper title race.

Five points separate Manchester City from league leaders Arsenal, which could close to just two if City win their game in hand on Mikel Arteta’s side. 

With the pair due to play each other in the Premier League in April, that means the title is now in the hands of both teams, should they win their intervening league games — and it looks like things will go down to the wire.

City and Arsenal are still fighting on four fronts after recently progressing in the FA Cup, Champions League and setting up a mouthwatering Carabao Cup final in late March — with each team having the opportunity to put a psychological dent in their rivals’ season.

But the Premier League feels like the big one, particularly for Arsenal, who are looking to end a run of three consecutive second-place finishes and lift their first English title in 23 years.

Looking at their remaining fixtures, Opta’s Power Rankings suggest that both teams have similarly difficult run-ins. 

City have a chance to pile on the pressure in the short term, with three winnable games before a postponed fixture at home to Crystal Palace, and the psychological advantage of playing before Arsenal for two of those three fixtures.

So, which side looks to be in the best shape as we approach the final straight?

With the help of Opta’s projection calculations, we take a look at the key tactical and data themes that have underpinned each side’s season.

Arsenal

Current position: 1st

Predicted position: 1st

Narratives can ebb and flow, but there is little doubt that Arsenal remain in the driving seat to clinch their first Premier League title in more than 20 years. Opta’s projection of an 84 per cent likelihood of a victory only serves to reinforce that.

That has been the case for most of the season, with City chasing a team who have spent 152 days — and counting — at the top. As with their previous title challenges, Arteta’s charge is built on solid defensive foundations — with no team across Europe’s top five leagues conceding chances of lower quality than Arsenal’s 0.67 expected goals against per 90 minutes.

Such defensive solidity was dominated by a suffocating press from the front in previous seasons, but Arsenal have taken their foot off the gas ever so slightly in the final third this campaign — largely owing to opponents hitting their passes long in their build-up. 

Only Liverpool (16 per cent) have faced a higher share of opposition passes long (35-plus yards) than Arsenal’s 15 per cent this season, meaning their sustained attacks have had to come via different means this campaign.

A strong rest defence and an impressive ability to stave off any opposition counter-attack have allowed Arsenal to maintain excellent foundations in possession as preparation for when they do lose the ball.

It might not excite some fans, but the extent to which Arteta minimises risk within games is an impressive part of their dominance.

From an attacking perspective, the obvious theme is Arsenal’s strength in dead-ball situations. 

No team across Europe’s top five leagues have scored more than Arsenal’s 19 set-piece goals in 2025-26, and even accounting for opportunity (per 100 set pieces), there is a real dominance from Arteta’s side within an increasingly important part of the game.

That extends to both boxes, where Arsenal have dramatically improved their defensive set-piece record this season after a surprisingly poor return last year. This is underpinned below when comparing their key defensive metrics over time, compared with Europe’s top five leagues, which also reflects their dominance elsewhere.

Just over one-third (34 per cent) of Arsenal’s Premier League goals scored have come via set pieces this season, but that should not detract from some of the attacking patterns they have shown in open play.

One particular theme has been their proficiency in creating chances via cutbacks this season, which has become increasingly effective when facing teams that play in a low block. No team have created more cutback chances than Arsenal in 2025-26, scoring seven goals along the way.

How such chances come about can be qualitatively different. 

On the left flank, there have been plenty of occasions where Arsenal have positioned a midfielder on the edge of the penalty area to receive a cutback when their winger is doubled up on. An example of this can be seen with Martin Zubimendi’s finish against Sunderland, where Leandro Trossard draws two players towards him to make space for his team-mate to shoot from distance.

A similar example is shown against Wolverhampton Wanderers only days later, when Gabriel Martinelli performs a near-identical action of attracting two players before releasing the ball to Declan Rice — who crosses for Saka to head past goalkeeper Jose Sa from close range.

Bukayo Saka’s assist for Eberechi Eze in the North London derby was a perfect example of Arsenal’s cutbacks working to great effect on the right flank, with Saka able to take on his man on the outside before delivering the ball back into a congested area for his team-mate to finish.

Amid the evolution in Arsenal’s play, that right-sided dominance remains.

Saka and Martin Odegaard might have had their issues this season, but the combinations on that flank — often including the supporting presence of Jurrien Timber — continue to be a key part of Arsenal’s attacking play.

Alongside their greater threat to play more directly in transition, there have been some subtle tweaks to Arsenal’s latest tilt this season. At the same time, they have doubled down on the strengths that have brought them so close in recent campaigns — with the evidence suggesting that this time could bring the most lucrative return for their efforts.

Manchester City

Current position: 2nd

Predicted position: 2nd

You may be looking at Manchester City’s 16 per cent odds of closing the gap and thinking, for a Pep Guardiola team who could be within two points of the top by Saturday evening, that one-in-six chance feels a bit low. That is because the Opta supercomputer does not do feelings.

Even if the underlying numbers and fixture difficulty suggest otherwise, there is no doubt that City have precedent at this stage of the season that brings some of the intangibles — experience, pressure, bottle — into the equation.

Guardiola’s side have put together winning streaks of 12, 12, 15, 15 and 18 in the Premier League before, and tend to click into their most frightening gear as winter turns to spring, improving their points-per-game tally in the second half of the season in six of their last seven campaigns.

Arsenal’s recent slip-up at bottom-side Wolves did little to dispel the idea that psychology will play a crucial, yet unquantifiable part in this title race as the finish line begins to approach.

Mind games aside, this is not the same kind of City side that has romped home to titles before. In the past, they were about complete control, suffocating teams with possession, grinding down defences and inevitably extracting the points they need. But as Premier League opponents have become fitter, faster, stronger — more aggressive out of possession and increasingly dangerous on the break — the manager has been forced to adapt.

After the harsh lessons of last season, City are now built to “ride the rhythm” of end-to-end Premier League games against athletic and physical opponents, relying on key moments from big players to pack a powerful punch.

Winter signing Antoine Semenyo has added that match-winning quality on the wings, a player who thrives in open space, while goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma — in many ways a symbol of City’s stylistic shift — has made huge saves late on against Liverpool and Newcastle United that have served to justify the focus on “moments” players as City cede control.

For the first time under Guardiola, City are averaging less than 60 per cent of the ball this season, notably seeing less than half of the possession share at home to Bournemouth back in October, before scything through Andoni Iraola’s team with a series of slick, counter-attacking moves.

As we can see from the visualisation below, City have never been so reliant on fast football to create chances and score goals, looking to catch opponents up the pitch instead of forcing them back into their own box.

It does mean that City can look a little open at times, prone to moments of variance that did not affect them at their imperious, all-controlling best.

There have been frustrating results: a 1-1 draw at home to Brighton & Hove Albion featured glaring misses from Erling Haaland and Bernardo Silva, while they threw away a 2-0 lead at Tottenham Hotspur weeks later, performances characterised by wastefulness in front of goal.

But when forwards are firing and defenders are winning their duels, City possess the quality at both ends to string together a run of results, even if they are embracing a little more chaos than before.

Another quirk of City’s season has been Guardiola’s shift towards a more regular starting side. He has selected six unchanged teams in the Premier League this season, as many as in the four previous seasons combined, with a mid-season run of eight wins from a possible nine games falling in their most settled spell.

As we can see from the graphic above, City have been forced into more rotation in the weeks since due to injuries to Josko Gvardiol, Ruben Dias and Nico Gonzalez forcing the manager’s hand.

But it is an interesting side plot to see Guardiola not tinker so much with his squad as City look for their famed consistency throughout another crucial run-in.

What about the others?

Opta still has not completely ruled out a handful of other teams from swooping in and storming to an unlikely title win, but there is little margin for error for the sides involved.

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa are given a 0.7 per cent chance of crashing the party, 10 points behind leaders Arsenal and with a game more to play. Their fixture list is kind, the third-easiest according to Opta’s power rankings, with a trip to Manchester City on the final day. Wouldn’t that be a late twist…

Manchester United are just three points behind Villa and are arguably the division’s form team, with six wins from their past seven Premier League games. They win the title once in every 500 of Opta’s simulations, a scenario that would require almost total collapse from the top two. Chelsea, down at 0.01 per cent, need an even more freakish set of results to go their way.

Technically, we cannot dismiss any of the chasing pack — but this is all about two sides.