Heidenheim, Real Oviedo and Burnley are among Europe’s struggling teams that have taken a more proactive approach in their bid for survival.
| Goal markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim – Over 2.5 & BTTS | +101 |
| Burnley vs Brentford – Over 2.5 | -125 |
| Fulham vs West Ham – Over 2.5 & BTTS | +105 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Teams shifting tactics as the season heads towards the finish
There are between 10 and 13 matchdays to go in Europe’s big five leagues. It’s that point in the season when many teams start to take more risks.
The likes of Oviedo, Wolves, Burnley, Pisa, and Verona are all at least eight points from safety. Draws will not save any of those clubs, so they need to target wins, even on the road.
That has been the recipe for some exciting matches involving relegation-threatened teams. In La Liga, bottom club Oviedo have become much more dangerous under their new coach Guillermo Almada. They drew 3-3 at Real Sociedad last Saturday and also lost 3-2 away to Osasuna in January.
It’s a similar story for the Bundesliga’s bottom club, Heidenheim. They’re now actively trying to outscore teams, and they’ve had some joy in the final third. Frank Schmidt’s side recently created 2.32 xG and seven big chances in a 3-2 defeat away to Borussia Dortmund.
It’s not just relegation-threatened teams who are shifting their approach. Many mid-table sides will also open up their play once safety becomes a near certainty. A late-season winning run could yet propel some of those clubs into Europe.
Brighton, currently 14th in the Premier League, enjoy a relatively safe nine-point lead over the bottom three. Just four points separate the Seagulls from the top eight and a likely European place. Many mid-table teams are therefore in a position where they can afford to take risks over the final 11 games.
How to approach betting on goals late in the season
The odds for over 2.5 goals tend to shorten in many games between the market release and kick-off. Bettors can take advantage by being quick to spot the value. That may require a different approach to even a few weeks ago, when statistical trends were more relevant.
To have success in the goal markets over the coming weeks, bettors will need to consider fresh tactical developments. There are cases where the goal lines are not initially priced correctly, which can lead to significant movement.
This weekend, there seems to be value in backing goals to flow as the Bundesliga’s bottom two meet. Aside from their thriller at Dortmund in early February, Heidenheim also drew 3-3 at home to Stuttgart last time out.
Opponents Werder Bremen have already been involved in two 3-3 draws at home this season. Backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score looks like a good option in a must-win clash for each side.
In the Premier League, Burnley have registered four points and four goals in their last two games. They need to go for maximum points at home to European hopefuls Brentford on Saturday.
The Bees’ away league games average 2.92 goals per 90 minutes. There appears to be value in backing over 2.5 goals, with an implied probability of 55.6%.
A similar dynamic will be at play when Fulham take on struggling West Ham next Wednesday. The Cottagers can afford to go for goals as they bid for Europe. They’ve been scoring at a healthy rate of 1.69 times per 90 minutes at home in the English top flight.
West Ham have only failed to score in one of their last seven Premier League matches. That suggests this match could also present opportunities when betting on goals.
