On the eve of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, two-thirds of Americans say the system of checks and balances that divides power between the White House, Congress and the courts is not working well, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll.
That’s a dramatic rise in the percentage of people who say they now doubt how a core tenet of American democracy is functioning, jumping 12 percentage points from this time last year. Since December 2024, the month before Trump returned to the White House, that number has doubled.
READ MORE: How to watch Trump’s 2026 State of the Union
The decline in faith is seen across the partisan spectrum, with Democrats and independents swinging 45 and 34 points respectively since then. Among Republicans, who control the White House and have majorities in both chambers of Congress, there’s also been a significant 19 percentage-point drop in confidence in the system.
That finding marks a troubling moment and a flashing warning sign, according to constitutional law scholar Kimberly Wehle, who teaches at the University of Baltimore School of Law.
One of the most significant checks on President Trump’s agenda was delivered by the Supreme Court on Friday. The justices struck down his sweeping tariffs on foreign goods, the cornerstone of his second-term economy policy in a 6-3 decision. The latest poll was conducted days before the ruling was announced.
Graphic by Steff Staples/ PBS News
After the defeat, Trump lashed out at the justices and said he “couldn’t care less” if they attend his speech on Tuesday.
WATCH: Trump holds news conference after Supreme Court strikes down his global tariffs
“I’m ashamed of certain members of the court,” Trump said. “They also are a frankly disgrace to our nation, those justices.”
He also suggested the defeat would not be the end to his global tariffs. Rather, he’d simply find a new legal justification to carry out his plan and again bypass congressional input – potentially setting up a future fight with the court.
Overall, 55% of Americans believe Trump is changing the country for the worse through the policies he’s prioritizing, according to this new poll. Another 37% believe he’s changing things for the better, and 8% say there’s been no real change.
Graphic by Steff Staples/ PBS News
The portion of Americans who worry about the changes Trump is making has risen 7 percentage points from last March and has reached the highest level of either of his terms in office.
To Wehle, it is hard to exaggerate “the extent to which the last year has degraded, if not demolished, the basic pillars of constitutional democracy,” she said.
“There isn’t really a system of checks and balances reining in power in the White House,” said Wehle, author of “How to Read the Constitution – and Why.” “Men are not angels, and we’re seeing that.”
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Not everyone shares Wehle’s worry. Concerns about a constitutional breakdown are greatly exaggerated, said John Yoo, a professor of law at the University of California at Berkeley and former Justice Department official during the George W. Bush administration.
“It’s not a surprise that when the same party controls the executive branch and Congress,” he said, “that you would see Congress basically acquiescing in the president’s initiatives.”
An erosion of checks and balances?
Trump’s second-term agenda was designed by his closest allies to move fast and test the limits of executive power. Over the last year, Trump has pushed his policy priorities at a frenetic pace, often bypassing Congress entirely and opting instead to sign executive actions, many of which have been challenged in courts.
His administration has dramatically escalated immigration enforcement efforts by sending thousands of federal agents and National Guard troops to U.S. cities. The Defense Department launched strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and apprehended Nicolás Maduro, the leader of Venezuela, after a short-lived incursion into that nation.
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Independent agencies were dismantled. The size and scope of the federal workforce was slashed. Congressionally approved funding was withheld. Trump pushed the Department of Justice to investigate his perceived political enemies.
Graphic by Steff Staples/ PBS News
Add it all up and you get 241 executive orders signed by Trump so far this term. The total has already surpassed what he enacted during his entire first term and is more than any president during a four-year term since what Jimmy Carter signed in the White House.
Under the U.S. Constitution, the check on presidential power falls to the other branches. For the most part, the Republican-controlled Congress has done little to push back as the president has taken over the spending and war powers that belong to the legislature.
WATCH: Trump’s pushback on judges challenges U.S. system of checks and balances
Congress’ most recent effort to check Trump’s power, which would have restricted further military action in Venezuela, was blocked last month despite having some bipartisan support. A handful of Republicans have also defied the president through support of the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
With the notable exception of his tariff policy, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court has allowed many of his executive actions to go into effect, even as lawsuits continue in lower courts.
Many Republicans have celebrated the speed at which Trump has implemented large swaths of his agenda. Wehle said that speed points to a much larger problem.
“Donald Trump understands there’s no enforcement,” Wehle said.
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When you’re driving, “it’s not the actual speed limit that slows people down. It’s the threat of enforcement or consequence for speeding. It’s that ticket that motivates compliance with the speed limit,” she said.
The erosion of checks and balances – and the political divisions over whether that is good or bad for the health of democracy – potentially could have long-term consequences.
“What people don’t understand is, once the system no longer functions, it won’t function when you need it to function either,” Wehle said. “When the apparatus of democracy fails then we just have to hope for a benevolent president.”
More than three-quarters of respondents in the latest poll feel the issues that divide the country pose a serious threat to the future of American democracy, a concern shared by a majority of all political parties. That sentiment has remained largely steady since Marist first asked the question in the aftermath of the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
On the other hand, Yoo says the consolidation of power in a strong executive is a return to previous norms.
Congress sought to restrict future presidents in the wake of the Watergate scandal of the 1970s and the executive overreach of the Nixon administration. Yoo argued that Trump’s executive actions over the last year are meant to restore a pre-Watergate worldview when the presidency had “more discretion, more power to it than it does today, and less congressional interference.”
WATCH: How Trump is challenging America’s judicial system during his second term
Yoo said this turning back of the clock will better align presidential powers with how the framers of the Constitution imagined, but that voters will hold the ultimate power during November’s midterm elections.
“[Trump’s] critics should go and win the elections at the midterms and then place political pressure using Congress’ constitutional powers to try to restrain him,” Yoo said.
Indeed, the collapsing faith in how government functions has the potential to translate into a very real political hurdle for the party and president in the “driver’s seat” this year, according to Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
“This is a disapproval of the status quo. And at a time when the Republicans hold the trifecta – all three branches [of government], that’s a problem, politically,” Miringoff said. “You can’t point the fingers.”
What Americans think about the ‘state of the union’
In the face of dwindling public support, Tuesday brings one of Trump’s biggest opportunities to reset his political agenda ahead of the midterm elections this November.
“He’s gotten off message,” Miringoff said. “Donald Trump needs to, in a sense, redefine what his second term is about.”
According to the latest poll, 60% of Americans say the country is worse off compared to a year ago, while 40% believe the country is in better shape.
Trump should turn his attention back to an economic message that resonates better with voters, Miringoff said, and away from immigration, an issue for which the Trump administration has faced widespread scrutiny after the shooting deaths of two U.S. citizens in Minnesota last month.
A majority of Americans – 53% – say Trump’s policies have had a negative impact on them personally, while 30% think they have been positively affected.
Graphic by Steff Staples/ PBS News
Unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority of Democrats say Trump’s policies have negatively affected their lives. Dylan Kelly is one of them.
He lost his job last year when the federal government cut the AmeriCorps grant funding for his climate change program. He also lives in Minnesota and has seen the administration’s immigration crackdown up close.
“I have people I know who have been afraid to leave their houses. I have had family members detained [and] family members tear-gassed,” he said. “People are being terrorized at a level that is just different than we saw in his first term.”
POLL: Nearly two-thirds of Americans say ICE has gone too far in immigration crackdown
Republican Christopher Gunkel of Virginia feels differently. He supports the administration’s efforts to deport people who are in the country illegally or committing crimes. After living overseas himself for a dozen years, he said people who come to the United States should do it “the right way.”
Gunkel is among the 7 in 10 Republicans who said Trump’s policies, particularly on the economy, are making his life better.
“I feel like he knows what he’s doing because he’s a businessman,” Gunkel said. “I feel more comfortable with him at the helm with our economy.”
Graphic by Steff Staples/ PBS News
But self-described independent Mark Meulebroeck of Oregon, who voted for Trump in 2024, said the current economic conditions do not match what Trump promised on the campaign trail and are a big reason why he thinks Trump has been ineffective.
Meulebroeck is self-employed and builds furniture to support his two young children and wife, who is undergoing cancer treatment. Affordability is one of his top concerns.
“Nothing is going down in price. Everything is still going up in costs,” he said. “Most people are struggling these days.”
“I certainly thought that things would be going a little bit better at this point,” Meulebroeck added.
READ MORE: The word nearly every president uses to describe the state of the union
That mix of public sentiment sets the stage for the president’s speech to Congress Tuesday night. If tradition holds, Trump is likely to say the state of the union is “strong.”
Many Americans watching at home will need some convincing. Less than half – 43% – of respondents in the latest poll believe the state of the union is strong. Another 57%, including 68% of independents, say it isn’t.
Of course, for many Americans, the definition of strength is relative.
“Strong compared to other countries? Very much so,” said Meulebroeck, the independent Trump voter who has largely soured on the president. “Certainly not as strong as we could be.”
Others would use another word entirely.
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“Terrible,” said Kelly, the Minnesota Democrat. “I’m concerned about our democracy. It feels like we are teetering on the edge of losing it all. And that’s a pretty scary place to be.”
Across the political spectrum, perhaps there is only one clear point of consensus: division.
“I think the issues are very divisive,” said Gunkel, the Virginia Republican. “I think that Trump is extremely polarizing – in some aspects for good because what you see is what you get.”
The deep polarization that has infected politics in recent years could blunt any impact of Trump’s speech. On Tuesday night, the president is likely to see a number of standing ovations from Republicans. On the other side of the aisle, many Democrats are already planning to boycott the speech and may instead attend a counter-rally on the National Mall. But at both events, Trump and his policies will be the center of attention.
“Donald Trump is defining the landscape,” Miringoff said.
PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey from Jan. 27 through Jan. 30, 2026, that polled 1,462 U.S. adults by phone, text and online with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, and 1,326 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.
Doug Adams contributed reporting.
