Dry Bulk Market: Chinese Holidays Disrupting Freight Rates

Capesize

The week was defined by holiday-disrupted liquidity and gradually softening sentiment across both basins. Lunar New Year celebrations in China and across much of Asia curtailed participation early on, limiting activity and constraining momentum. Initial firmness on C5, with a major miner fixing at $9.50, proved short-lived. As the week progressed and Singapore returned, increased miner presence initially failed to provide meaningful support, with fixtures slipping back to $9.15, eroding pre-holiday gains and weighing on overall confidence. However, by Friday, two miners were active in the market, helping rates recover modestly, with C5 closing the week at $9.30 levels. In the Atlantic, South Brazil and West Africa to China remained the primary focal point but steadily softened through the week. Fixtures drifted from the mid-$23s into the low-$23s region, with occasional sub-$23s reported, reflecting lengthening ballaster lists and fresh March stems entering a market already skewed toward supply. However, by week’s end there were signs of stabilisation, with reports of fixtures edging back toward the upper $23s. The North Atlantic saw minimal fresh impetus, with limited cargo flow and weaker transatlantic levels reinforcing the subdued tone.

Panamax

This week highlighted an increasingly pronounced divide between the Atlantic and Pacific basins. In the Atlantic, sentiment gradually weakened, with the P1A index posting consecutive declines as prompt transatlantic enquiry slowed and vessel supply moved back into balance with demand. The earlier upswing lost traction, and rates across the main routes appeared to stabilise, suggesting the market is approaching a near-term floor. Overall activity remained steady but lacked the urgency seen in previous weeks.

By contrast, the Pacific market maintained firm momentum despite the Lunar New Year holidays. Healthy cargo volumes, tight prompt tonnage in Indonesia and continued stems from Australia and the North Pacific underpinned steady gains in the P3A. Strengthening period interest also supported backhaul demand, with the P5TC average closing the week at $16,543.

Ultramax/Supramax

The market adopted a cautious stance this week, shaped by ample tonnage in some regions and positional dynamics in others. The Continent and Mediterranean showed a softer tone overall, with limited fresh activity reported; a 64,000-dwt open Antwerp 14-15 February fixed a trip to Tampa-Veracruz with steel products at $13,500. Early-week support in the US Gulf and South Atlantic gradually faded, as momentum in the Gulf reversed amid limited fresh enquiry and softer rate discussions, while the South Atlantic appeared more balanced with fronthaul demand losing steam. A 58,000-dwt open Rio Haina 26–28 February was placed on subjects for a SW Pass to East Mediterranean with grains at $22,000, and a 64,000-dwt fixed delivery Recalada to Chittagong at $17,500 plus a $750,000 ballast bonus. In Asia, trading conditions remained flat and lacklustre due to the Lunar New Year holidays and reduced market participation, with fundamentals broadly unchanged throughout the week.

Handysize

This week, trading activity was heavily influenced by the Lunar New Year holidays, resulting in subdued conditions across the Pacific, while the Atlantic basin provided the main source of support. The Atlantic market held a firm tone, with steady demand from the Continent, EC South America, and the US Gulf, underpinned by tighter prompt tonnage in select areas. A 39,000-dwt open Baltic was reported fixed to the East Mediterranean with scrap at $23,000, while a 41,000-dwt secured a trip from SW Pass to Puerto Cabello at $22,500. In contrast, sentiment in Asia remained soft, as limited fresh enquiry and a lengthy tonnage list kept rates hovering around previous levels; a 41,000-dwt was fixed for a trip from Saganoseki to the Continent at $13,000. Period activity was minimal, though a 38,000-dwt was concluded from SW Pass for about 4–6 months with Atlantic redelivery at $17,000.
Source: Baltic Exchange



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