New data from the Port of Los Angeles shows that commitments made by China to buy more U.S. agricultural products as part of a trade bargain between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump have yet to materialize, and that has contributed to a decline in cargo volume to near a three-year low for the nation’s busiest port.

Total processed cargo volume at the Port of Los Angeles in January was down by approximately 12% year over year, with Gene Seroka, executive director for the Port of Los Angeles, citing a decline in agricultural exports as among the major factors. “Exports to China look dismal,” he said.

Exports to China have dropped considerably across the country’s major ports, with containerized exports down 26% last year, according to data shared by the Port of Los Angeles. Los Angeles took a big hit on the crucial agricultural export of soybeans, according to Seroka.

In early 2026, President Trump announced China was considering purchasing an additional eight million metric tons of U.S. soybeans (totaling 20 million) for the current season, following the October 2025 agreement to buy 12 million tons.

Soybeans coming out of the Port of Los Angeles to China were down 80% last year, and no improvement was seen in either November or December after the initial discussions between the U.S. and China.

“It’s a really important part of the overall export strategy here,” Seroka said. “Argentina and Brazil have picked up a lot of the contracts for China on soybeans,” he said, and he added that any increase in the U.S. farm sector’s ability to export will take time. “These are not transactional-type applications. These are agreements that the last three, six, and twelve months in duration. So it’ll be yet another cycle before the U.S. soybean exporter has a chance to bid and get into the game,” he added.

The Port of Los Angeles reported roughly 812,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) for the month of January, including imports, exports and empty containers. In January 2025, roughly 924,000 TEUs were reported, fueled by front-loading of freight ahead of not only the major holiday period in Asia but the start of President Trump’s second-term tariffs. Breaking out the container count, January imports were 421,000 container units, down almost 13% from last year’s higher levels. On the export side, 104,000 container units were processed, a close to 8% drop year over year.

Empty export containers that during times of high demand are sent back to Asia, a forwarding looking indicator of Asia demand, came in at 286,000 TEUs, a 12.5% drop from last year, according to the Port of Los Angeles.

Seroka said the elevated 2025 numbers from a period when importers were scrambling to get cargo in ahead of tariffs will continue to be a factor in comparisons throughout much of 2026. “U.S. trade policy remains largely uncertain, and I expect that to continue,” he said.

The freight container import volume drop at the nation’s largest port was notable during what is usually a busy period for import activity from China, and Asian manufacturing hubs more broadly, due to Lunar New Year, as companies bring in spring and summer items before manufacturing plants in China close for a month to celebrate the holiday. Softer demand for goods can also be seen in February data to date, with container counts from arrivals looking “flat,” according to Seroka. “Compared to last year’s big first quarter, I project a decline of less than 10% for Q1 and I don’t see the economy or cargo volume dropping off a cliff after that,” he said.

But he added that the January numbers are troubling. “That’s our lowest monthly output in almost three years,” Seroka said. “This reinforces why trade policy is so important. American farmers and manufacturers need to remain competitive in global markets. They simply can’t afford to lose more ground,” he said.

Ocean freight economics on U.S. routes near ‘break-even point’

As U.S. port activity has slumped, pressure is being felt throughout the ocean shipping market, with rates trending down and too much available container capacity on ships.

According to Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, the decrease in container volumes has led to a widespread drop in ocean freight rates. In the “mid-low market segment” — generally occupied by the larger volume shippers — rates have fallen over 18% in the last month, while the market average has fallen 11.5%.

“With the market mid-low acting as a bellwether and seemingly impacted more immediately by the increasing capacity on the transpacific, those shippers paying the market average should expect further softening in rates in the coming weeks,” said Sand.

Ocean carriers will respond with what Sand called “aggressive capacity management,” which would mean more blank (canceled) sailings to help put a floor under falling rates.

In a recent note to clients, Honour Lane Shipping said current freight rate levels have “fallen close to or even below” carrier break-even points on all lanes to the U.S. and Canada.

HLS noted the number of canceled sailings starting with the week of Feb. 9 reflected vessel capacity reduction of 60%, 58%, and 50% on the Asia to Pacific South West, Asia to Pacific North West, and Asia to U.S. East Coast trade lanes.

As a result of the cancelled sailings, containers may be “rolled” once or twice while still in Asia — meaning the containers sit idle across weeks on the trade calendar until they can be placed on a vessel with a destination in the U.S. “This could cause supply chain disruption and delays for shippers,” said Sand.

China’s import mix in January remained heavily concentrated in consumer goods and industrial inputs, according to trade data compiled by Descartes, with furniture and bedding, at 126,149 TEUs, accounting for 16.4% of China-origin imports. Plastics represented 15.4%, while the combined import categories of machinery and electrical machinery reached 18.3% of total volume. Apparel, footwear and other textiles combined made up 6.5% of total volume, while toys and sporting goods accounted for 5.8% of imports, according to Descartes data.

The decline in trade volume from China is being offset to a degree by the expansion of manufacturing into Southeast Asian countries. In January, there was a 17.8% year-over-year increase in U.S. containerized imports from Vietnam, according to Descartes, while imports from Thailand and Indonesia increased 36.5% and 18%, respectively.

“The expanding sourcing from Southeast Asia is continuing to offset a portion of the decline in China-origin imports,” Honour Lane wrote in its recent note to clients.

Seroka said the Port of Los Angeles had around 60% of its import business tied to China at the beginning of the first trade war in 2018. “Today, it’s 40 percent and dropping,” he said. The port has been able to grow due to the combination of Southeast Asia countries making gains, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines. “But again, you’re not going to replace China or even one province in China with another origin,” Seroka said.

The Port of Long Beach, the sister port to Los Angeles, reported record container volumes as a result of the front-loading in 2025, with volume growth helped by trade out of Southeast Asia.