Author: Viee | Biteye Content Team

In early February 2026, the winter at Victoria Harbour in Hong Kong was livelier than usual as the Hong Kong Consensus Conference, a focal point for Asian crypto narratives, was held once again.

Recently, the price of Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark, with trading volumes sluggish and investor sentiment fraught with anxiety. In this bear market, what choices will the giant exchanges make to weather the storm? For ordinary retail investors, perhaps the question is not when the bull market will return, but whether they can survive this downturn. Platforms are adjusting their portfolios, institutions are building positions, so how should we allocate capital and protect our principal?

This article will start by discussing Binance’s statements at the Consensus Conference, analyze the underlying logic behind institutional purchases of Bitcoin, and combine recent exchange wealth management activities to explore how retail and institutional investors can prepare together during this industry winter.

I. Binance’s Voice at the Consensus Conference

Amidst price fluctuations and low sentiment, the speeches at this year’s Consensus Conference differed from the passionate expressions typical of past bull markets, instead conveying more of an assessment of structural market changes. Richard Teng, Co-CEO of Binance, delivered a particularly representative speech, which highlighted several clear signals regarding regulation, institutions, and infrastructure.

First, regulation is no longer an obstacle, but a prerequisite.

Richard emphasized that “clear regulation is the foundation of innovation,” specifically mentioning recent legislative progress in the United States and how the ‘Genius Act’ has boosted confidence in the stablecoin industry. Stablecoins, once merely liquidity tools within the crypto ecosystem, are gradually entering corporate finance and cross-border settlement systems, indicating that crypto assets are also transitioning toward becoming financial infrastructure.

Second, the boundaries between Web2 and Web3 are disappearing.

Another noteworthy aspect of the speech was Binance’s collaboration with Franklin Templeton on tokenized money market funds. Using tokenized funds as institutional collateral suggests that traditional financial assets are being integrated into the crypto trading ecosystem.

At the same time, the growth in trading volume of precious metals derivatives also reflects institutions’ genuine demand for a 24/7 global market. When money market funds, gold derivatives, and stablecoins begin to form a closed loop on the same platform, the role of the exchange is no longer just to facilitate transactions but more like a round-the-clock global financial hub.

Third, retail investors are观望(waiting), while institutions are accumulating.

A key figure provided by Richard shows that institutional investors added approximately 43,000 Bitcoin in January.

The significance of this figure does not lie in an immediate price increase but rather indicates a shift in market structure. Retail users in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions remain active, but overall trading热度(enthusiasm) is indeed lower than during a bull market. In contrast, institutional funds continue to position themselves within low-volatility ranges. Combined with Binance’s announcement on January 29, 2026, regarding the SAFU Fund’s strategic adjustment—converting $1 billion worth of stablecoin reserves into Bitcoin reserves within 30 days—this demonstrates strong institutional confidence.

In other words, while retail investors are waiting for a clear bottom signal, institutions are already making allocation decisions, suggesting that smart money may not have exited the market.

This raises the question: when institutions are buying and platforms are adjusting their asset structures, how should retail investors deeply understand the implications behind these actions?

Second, while the market remains sluggish, why have institutions already taken action?

To analyze the previously mentioned institutional buying, let us review how Bitcoin has attracted significant institutional capital allocation in recent years, especially since the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024, which significantly strengthened institutional buying power.

1. Analysis of Institutional Buying Trends

Currently, institutional buying primarily enters the market through ETFs, investment funds, corporations, and government entities. The following points highlight current trends in institutional positioning:

• Spot ETFs are attracting significant inflows: Institutional access to the Bitcoin market through spot ETFs has become a mainstream approach, and ETF data is also one of the ways to gauge market sentiment. For instance, according to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their largest weekly outflow since November of the previous year at the end of January (approximately $1.22 billion). Historical experience shows that large-scale redemptions often occur near阶段性 bottoms, suggesting that Bitcoin may currently be approaching a local low. The data in the chart below indicates that the average holding cost for ETF investors is approximately $84,099. This price range has historically formed key support levels multiple times. If historical patterns repeat, the current outflow of funds may indicate that short-term downward momentum is nearing its end, with the potential for a market rebound.

• Surge in corporate Bitcoin holdings: Reports indicate that by Q4 2025, the total amount of Bitcoin held by global publicly traded companies reached approximately 1.1 million coins (around $94 billion), with 19 new listed companies purchasing Bitcoin. This suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly being regarded as a strategic asset by businesses. In addition to well-known strategic treasury firms, several newly listed companies have also joined the buying trend, further validating the influx of institutional capital. Below is data on the top 10 Bitcoin treasuries.

• National-level initiatives: Some countries are also openly purchasing Bitcoin. For instance, in November 2025, the government of El Salvador announced a single-day purchase worth $100 million, acquiring approximately 1,090 BTC, bringing its total holdings to over 7,000 coins.

In summary, from 2024 to the present, institutional buying has been characterized by explosive inflows into ETFs and intensive position building by corporations and investment funds. As Richard Teng noted, this trend is expected to continue into 2026, potentially providing upward momentum to the market.

2. What are some historically representative public Bitcoin purchases?

As of early 2026, public Bitcoin purchases aimed at “market development, ecosystem stabilization, or reserve asset accumulation” can be categorized into five major types. Below are several representative examples:

The table above shows that institutional Bitcoin purchases for market development generally fall into three categories. The first category involves corporate asset allocation, such as MicroStrategy, which uses shareholder assets to treat Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. The second category includes national or decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) acquisitions for reserve purposes. The third category comprises exchange-driven purchases, such as Binance’s recent SAFU conversion. This approach shifts reserves from stablecoins to Bitcoin, which is more resistant to inflation, censorship, and self-custody, enhancing asset independence in the face of potential geopolitical systemic shocks.

The distinction lies here: the majority of corporate Bitcoin purchases stem from financial decision-making. However, Binance’s use of its user protection fund signifies a risk restructuring-driven acquisition.

3. How does Binance’s approach differ fundamentally from other institutions?

First, the nature of the assets differs.

MicroStrategy uses corporate assets, while ETF institutions’ purchases are passive allocations sourced from user subscriptions, without bearing corporate responsibility for price fluctuations. The national purchase approach by El Salvador is more of a policy-driven strategic behavior, with decision-making logic that is difficult to replicate. In contrast, Binance uses its user protection fund, converting the protection fund into Bitcoin (BTC), essentially treating Bitcoin as the most reliable long-term asset.

Second, the execution methods differ.

The models employed by MicroStrategy and ETF institutions are closer to trend/bottom-up position accumulation. In contrast, Binance adopts a phased purchasing strategy and has implemented a rebalancing mechanism. If the SAFU fund’s market value falls below a predetermined safety threshold, additional purchases will be made. This dynamic replenishment mechanism indicates a focus on long-term asset structure management.

Third, the market roles differ.

Corporate purchases of Bitcoin primarily affect their investment structure, whereas continuous ETF subscriptions signify an ongoing expansion of institutional compliance channels. Exchanges buying Bitcoin influence overall market liquidity and sentiment. When the world’s largest exchange locks up $1 billion worth of Bitcoin as a long-term reserve, it reinforces expectations of bullishness among leading platforms, creating a demonstration effect.

4. Retail investors need to consider: What does this mean for the market and Bitcoin prices?

In the short term, large-scale public purchases have not triggered sharp price increases, indicating that the market may be in a phase of rational digestion. However, from a structural perspective, we believe there may be several medium- to long-term impacts.

First, $1 billion worth of Bitcoin is being locked in the insurance fund for the long term, effectively reducing circulating supply, although the proportion of total circulating supply is relatively low (approximately 0.1%). According to relevant research data, spreading $1 billion over 30 days translates to daily purchases of approximately $33.33 million. Within Bitcoin’s average daily trading volume of $30 billion to $50 billion, this accounts for only 0.1%-0.2%, making it unlikely to cause significant disruption. After adopting the TWAP algorithm, the per-minute purchase volume is only about $23,000, barely noticeable amidst regular volatility. Based on these estimates, the expected price boost is projected to be within 0.5%-1.5%.

Secondly, as a strategic purchase by the world’s largest exchange, this move is viewed as an endorsement of Bitcoin by authoritative institutions, potentially generating additional confidence premiums. Therefore, considering both direct buying pressure and market sentiment, Bitcoin’s potential price increase may exceed 1%, reaching a range of 2%-5%.

Lastly, support mechanisms. As Binance has committed to continuing purchases if the fund value falls below $800 million, this mechanism effectively sets a strong support level. When prices experience significant corrections, the market will anticipate Binance stepping in, helping to mitigate downward pressure.

In summary, Binance’s phased purchase of one billion dollars is expected to provide only a moderate boost to Bitcoin, with no significant short-term price surge. However, it offers an invisible layer of support for market sentiment and prices, reflecting more of a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin rather than short-term speculation.

III. Survival Rules for Retail Investors in a Bear Market: Seeking Defensive Returns

While institutions are allocating underlying assets, how should retail investors respond? Since they cannot influence the market like large funds, the best approach is to conserve resources.

During the current downturn, apart from passively holding coins, utilizing platform activities for low-risk wealth management is a necessary supplement to weather the winter. The recent financial moves by Binance demonstrate a clear logic:

1. Low-barrier ‘Current Defensive’: For USD1 Booster wealth management products, the maximum annualized return is approximately 8%. For $U, Plan A offers universal benefits, and deposits into Pool B/C yield about 15% annually.

Suitable for passive players who prefer not to engage in complex strategies.

2. Advanced ‘Combination Strategies’: For experienced holders of $U or BNB, staking through protocols such as Venus or Lista can achieve compound returns of 15%-20%.

In summary, the core strategy at this stage is to avoid chasing illusory high-leverage gains and instead emulate institutional practices by adopting stable wealth management methods to deepen holdings, ensuring survival through the winter.

IV. Conclusion: Companions in the Winter

The bear market will eventually pass, but only those who survive will have the privilege of welcoming the spring.

At present, this prolonged crypto winter continues to test the patience of every market participant. Through the window of the Hong Kong Consensus Conference, we have gained insight into the real choices made by leading exchanges.

As the old saying goes, ‘If winter comes, can spring be far behind?’ In a bear market, some are preparing for the worst, which also implies that the dawn will eventually arrive. Until then, all we can do is remain rational and patient, manage risks, and value the chips in our hands.