Gold and silver prices rose as U.S. Treasury bond yields fell after December retail sales growth stalled, signaling a softening economy ahead of key jobs data.
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Gold’s wild price swings in recent weeks are increasingly being linked to speculative trading in China by some analysts, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributing the heightened volatility to “unruly” Chinese activity.
Gold prices jumped to a record high of $5,594 per ounce on Jan. 29 only to plummet nearly 10% the next day in its sharpest drop in decades. Since then, the yellow metal has struggled to consistently stay above the 5,000 level.
While broader factors such as U.S. interest-rate expectations and geopolitical tensions continuing to drive bullion demand, some analysts believe Chinese retail and institutional investors are playing an outsized role in driving volatility.
Bessent, who spoke on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, described the move bluntly. “The gold move thing, things have gotten a little unruly in China … They are having to tighten margin requirements. So gold looks to me kind of like a classical, speculative blowoff.”
Surging activity in gold futures and exchange-traded funds, rising use of leverage despite repeated margin hikes appear be behind gold’s choppy trade, market watchers echoed.
China has been the “dominant driver” impacting prices of precious metals this time, said Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS Pamp.
Gold prices in the past year
“That’s been driven by a mix of speculative inflows, retail and institutional, through a mix of ETFs, physical bars and futures positioning,” she told CNBC.
Chinese gold-backed ETF holdings have more than doubled since the start of 2025, according to data provided by Capital Economics, while gold futures trading activity has picked up sharply in recent months.
“This [volaitilty] is partly because of growing access to gold-linked financial products like futures contracts and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in China,” said Hamad Hussain, economist at Capital Economics. “What’s more, there are signs of increasing amounts of leverage in China’s gold market too, which can lead to significant gold price volatility.”
Volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have surged, with year-to-date average approaching 540 tons per day, Ray Jia, research head APAC ex‑India and trade engagement deputy head China at World Gold Council, told CNBC. That rise builds on the record trading volume in 2025 at 457 tons a day on average.
Regulators have taken notice, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange repeatedly raising margin requirements to curb heightened volatility.
“The growing use of futures contracts and leverage to invest in gold is not typical of investors seeking a safe haven asset,” Hussain said, warning that the recent buying “implies that there may be a speculative bubble inflating.”
From safe haven to speculative trade?
The surge in participation reflects both structural anxieties and tactical positioning.
“Chinese people have limited access to the financial market. They have to invest in property, deposits etc. Gold is a good alternative when housing prices fall and deposit rate low at 1%,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Research.
Currently gold accounts for about 1% of Chinese household assets, according to data from ANZ Research. Xing expects that to rise to 5% in the “near future,” especially amid depressed real estate prices and deposit rates hovering near historic lows. “People believe gold can play a role of insurance.”
For Beijing, the motive is also strategic amid a wider push away from the dollar, he noted.
“The government is pushing de-dollarization to protect themselves from economic coercion from the U.S., said Shaun Rein, founder and managing director at the China Market Research Group.
“Chinese retail investors and the government are driving higher prices in gold as they search for higher returns and safe havens,” he said.
According to official data released by the U.S. Treasury Department, China’s U.S. Treasury holdings have declined to $682 billion in November 2025, down 11% year on year. The People’s Bank of China, meanwhile, has expanded its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months through January, reportedly taking holdings to roughly 2,300 tons.
“Alongside a flight to safety, there may also be a gold bubble inflating in China,” said Capital Economics’ Hussain.
