Bitcoin’s recent sell-off has exposed a growing tension in crypto markets, pitting seasoned “buy-the-dip” investors against mounting evidence of structural vulnerabilities.
As the digital asset fell alongside a broader risk-off move in global markets, analysts offered sharply contrasting interpretations of the downturn and its implications for investors.
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Bitcoin’s Sell-Off Reveals a Deepening Clash Between Conviction Buyers and Structural Market Weakness
For long-time Bitcoin bull and author Robert Kiyosaki, the decline represents a rare buying opportunity. He compared market behavior to retail sales, noting that while many rush to buy discounted goods in stores, investors often panic during asset-market sell-offs.
“The gold, silver, and Bitcoin market just crashed… I am waiting with cash in hand to begin buying more,” Kiyosaki said, framing the current market conditions as a discounted entry point for long-term accumulation.
Other experts, however, urge caution. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed to a lack of fresh capital inflows and flatlined Realized Cap—a metric tracking the value of coins at their last moved price—as signals that the sell-off reflects profit-taking rather than sustainable market growth.
“Bitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists. When market cap falls in that environment, it’s not a bull market,” he said, noting that while a dramatic crash akin to previous cycles seems unlikely, the market bottom remains uncertain.
The weakness in Bitcoin is also part of a broader cross-asset correction. Macro strategists at Bull Theory described the decline as a sequential chain reaction, beginning with small-cap equities and the US dollar, cascading through stocks and precious metals, and finally spilling into highly leveraged crypto markets.
“This wasn’t random. It was a chain reaction: small caps, dollar, equities, metals, crypto,” the firm noted, highlighting the interconnectivity of global markets.
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Quant Models Highlight Bitcoin’s Undervaluation Amid Structural Market Risks
Despite these bearish indicators, some quantitative analyses suggest Bitcoin may be historically undervalued.
A recent power-law model indicates that BTC is trading roughly 35% below its 15-year trend, placing it in an “oversold” range historically associated with sharp mean-reversion.
According to this model, Bitcoin could rebound to $113,000 by mid-2026 and exceed $160,000 by early 2027, with projected returns over the next 12 months potentially exceeding 100%.
Yet the sell-off also illustrates a deeper structural lesson. Analyst JA Maartun emphasized that markets consistently test concentration and conviction.
When price action depends on continuous buying by a few participants, any slowdown exposes weaknesses.
Past events, from Terra/LUNA to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings, show that reliance on concentrated inflows can amplify volatility once those flows pause.
As Bitcoin searches for stability, the market appears caught between two forces: conviction-driven investors seizing discounted prices and structural pressures stemming from a lack of fresh capital and leveraged positions.
As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $76,819, down by 0.34% in the last 24 hours.
