The USD/ZAR not only has broken below the important psychological level of 16.00000 in the past couple of days, but is now trading near the 15.74000 realm with fast trading easy to see.
If day traders have been pursuing the USD/ZAR trend lower which has been quite evident over the past handful of months, they were likely given an additional treat to enjoy over the past handful of days. The USD/ZAR at the time of this writing is near the 15.74000 ratio with quick fluctuations being demonstrated. The currency pair is touching values last seen in June of 2022. But that is not the end of the story for the South African Rand and its speculators.
On Friday the 21st of January, almost a week ago, the USD/ZAR was over the 16.20000 level which appeared to be a rather comfortable realm and was still showing signs of bearish behavioral sentiment, but wrapped in a blanket of caution as reversals upwards were occasionally seen. As of this Monday however, the USD/ZAR broke below the 16.00000 and instead of persisting there with tests, the currency pair started to experience even more selling.
Strong Trend and Solid Correlations for the USD/ZAR
USD centric weakness in the broad Forex market has been quite abundant this week. The USD/ZAR has correlated to other major currencies which have gained well versus the USD. The ability to move lower has now brought the currency pair to a point where financial institutions in South Africa and internationally may question just how much stronger the South African Rand can get, this before it is considered as being oversold.
Technical traders who are looking for lower boundaries to explore need to look at five year charts. The problem with this consideration is, how relevant can the current value of the USD/ZAR be to its historical price from nearly four year ago. And the answer is not much – except to say some economic conditions have changed in South Africa, and perceptions – more importantly – are in flux too. The USD/ZAR at lower values compared to where it is now are attainable certainly, but how low?
15.70000 and Notions of Being Oversold
The belief at the start of January about the 16.0000 level being a legitimate target may have seemed too optimistic, but clearly those considerations were proven too cautious. Looking for lower values in the USD/ZAR and trying to identify a target doesn’t exactly feel easy, but the 15.50000 level may feel like an appropriate goal.
- However, the USD/ZAR has moved so quickly that day traders may feel like now is the time to look for some reversals higher.
- But jumping in front of a strong trend before others do may also be a wrong decision.
- Momentum continues to test lower boundaries in the USD/ZAR and this may remain a feature of the currency pair.
- The correlation of strong commodity prices in the metals also needs to be considered as a factor.
- However, counterweighing this consideration is the notion that South Africa is still battling fiscal concerns, questions about fiduciary oversight (corruption) and economic policies.
USD/ZAR Outlook February 2026
Speculative price range for USD/ZAR is 15.35000 to 16.10000
The USD/ZAR has enjoyed a solid month of downwards price action. However, before bias enters the mindsets of those sitting in South Africa it should be remembered the broad Forex market has also seen vast gains against the USD by other major currencies. This is not to take away from what the South African Rand has accomplished regarding its bearish trend in the USD/ZAR, but merely a reminder that markets are correlated.
Looking for lower price action in the currency pair remains interesting, but the value of the USD/ZAR should be watched closely as February gets set to begin. If the USD/ZAR starts to show stronger support around its current levels, this may mean that financial institutions believe the currency pair has done too much selling over the past handful of weeks. Day traders should be cautious. The massive downturn in the USD/ZAR made the past handful of days is not likely to be experienced again in February. But having said that it does appear Forex volatility has returned globally, meaning speculators need to practice solid risk taking tactics.
