Beijing: China has begun exerting pressure on Japan after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi refused to retract comments suggesting Japan’s military could be involved if Beijing took action against Taiwan. Beijing’s response has followed a well-established pattern: discouraging travel, restricting cultural exchanges, and applying economic pressure while launching strong political criticism.

The first visible impact emerged shortly after China issued an advisory warning against travel to Japan. Businesses that rely heavily on Chinese tourists reported immediate cancellations. A Tokyo tearoom that typically hosts about 3,000 Chinese visitors a year has already seen about 200 cancellations extending into January, reflecting hesitation among travellers. Similar patterns have emerged nationwide, with travel companies and hotels reporting losses aligned with previous diplomatic disputes.

Economists note that China used similar tactics during past disagreements, including the 2020 tariffs on Australian wine and restrictions on Philippine banana imports in 2012. The approach combines economic pressure with controlled, incremental countermeasures. Analysts in Beijing expect more steps, noting that issues involving Taiwan remain central to China’s political interests.

Japan has attempted to prevent the situation from escalating but has shown no indication that it will withdraw or adjust its position on Taiwan. This mirrors how several countries have previously responded to Chinese pressure campaigns, choosing instead to maintain policy positions and wait for relations to stabilise, often after leadership changes.

Japan has previously faced China’s economic retaliation. In 2012, a dispute over contested islands triggered protests, boycotts and a sharp decline in Chinese tourism. Based on those events, economists estimate that the current advisory could cost Japan up to 1.8 trillion yen (about USD 11.5 billion) and reduce its annual economic growth by 0.3 percentage points.

The impact is already being felt. Group tours from China have been cancelled, affecting hotels and tour operators across Japan. Some businesses reported losing thousands of clients in a matter of days. China had been close to regaining its position as Japan’s largest source of foreign tourists this year, with more than eight million Chinese visitors recorded in the first ten months of 2025.

The pressure is extending beyond tourism. China recently postponed the release of two Japanese films and halted comedy festival shows by a Japanese entertainment company. A Japanese comic book import project has also been suspended, and questions remain about the future of Japanese seafood exports to China amid conflicting reports about the possible lifting of a long-standing ban.

Chinese restrictions could also expand to rare earth exports, an area where Beijing has significant influence in global supply chains. China has previously used rare earth curbs as leverage against other nations, raising concerns that Japan could face similar measures.

Chinese officials have stated that Japan should retract what Beijing considers “erroneous remarks” and take steps to repair the political foundation of bilateral relations. Without such measures, China has warned it may escalate its response.
(With AFP inputs)

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