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Skerdian Meta•Friday, March 14, 2025•3 min read
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Stock markets fell yesterday due to geopolitical and economic concerns, and we may see more selling before the weekend close.
Markets remain heavily influenced by concerns over tariffs, with lingering uncertainty about a resolution of the Ukraine conflict also weighing. There is also ongoing unease regarding the situation in Ukraine, further weighing on investor sentiment.
Major US stock indices declined, with the Nasdaq leading the losses and erasing Wednesday’s gains. President Donald Trump warned that the US could impose a 200% tariff on wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages if Europe moves forward with its whiskey tariff.
US markets wiped out the previous day’s gains, posting significant losses, signaling a deepening market correction. So far this week, the Dow has fallen 4.6%, the S&P 500 has lost 4.3%, and the Nasdaq is down around 5%, marking one of the worst weekly performances in months.
In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies except the Japanese yen. Commodities saw mixed movements, with crude oil declining to $65, down $1, while gold surged $54, nearing the $3,000 mark at $2,989.
Despite stronger-than-expected US PPI data, the stock market failed to recover. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 0.0%, lower than the expected 0.3%, while the core PPI, excluding food and energy, was at -0.1%, also below estimates of 0.3%.
Today’s Market Expectations
The main event today is the economic calendar is the release of the UK GDP report for January. The UK economy has shown weakness in the second half of 2024, but in December the GDP jumped to 0.4%. However, that was most likely due to Christmas spending, so February is expected at 0.1%.
Consumer sentiment in the US weakened, with last month’s preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index being revised to 64.7 points from 67.8 previously, while today it is expected to fall again to 63.1 points. UoM inflation expectations had previously been recorded at 4.3%.
Yesterday the volatility in some markets such as equities and cryptocurrencies was pretty high, and we saw a coupe of reversals in forex and commodities such as Gold and crude Oil. That got traders on the wrong foot and we had three losing signals, however we closed 4 winning forex signals as well, after 7 trades during yesterday.
Another Record High in Gold
Gold, after experiencing a sharp drop in February, briefly climbed above $2,900 before retreating again. Despite struggling to hold new highs, demand for the metal remains strong in both risk-on and risk-off market conditions. Buyers stepped in near the $2,832 support level over the last two days, pushing gold above $2,915. Yesterday, bullish momentum drove prices up to a new record high at $2,989.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
GBP/USD Returns to 1.30
The BOC lowered rates by 25% yesterday, but the price didn’t reach 1.45 and we saw a reversal lower after that. The USD/CAD exchange rate has been extremely erratic lately. Nothing is certain at this time because trade negotiations and statements between the US and Canada continue to flow. After the original tariff announcement, USD/CAD jumped beyond 1.45 on Tuesday but eventually gave up its gains, returning to 1.4370 yesterday.
GBP/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Returns to $80K
The selling momentum continues in Bitcoin. It initially surged to $95,000 early this month, after Donald Trump announced the US cryptocurrency reserve, but the selling pressure soon returned, finally driving Bitcoin below its 200-day simple moving average (purple). Last week, Bitcoin had dropped to $77,000, surpassing February’s low of $78,500 before making an attempt to rebound. However, resistance at the 200-day SMA prevented the price rebound and yesterday sellers returned, sending BTC to $80K.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Pushed Above the 10 SMA Yesterday
XRP followed a similar volatile pattern. Following Trump’s announcement that Ripple, Solana, and Cardano would be included in the US cryptocurrency reserve, XRP surged 50%, briefly surpassing $3. However, it failed to sustain its momentum and fell back to $2.2150. The broader recovery in risk assets later helped XRP regain $2.30, but for further gains, it needs to break above the $3 resistance level. If it struggles to stay above $2.20, renewed selling pressure could push XRP back toward its lower support levels.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
