As a U.S. delegation in Moscow worked to hammer out a ceasefire agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader responded by demanding extensive concessions in exchange for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine.
So far, Trump has made harsh demands on Ukraine while avoiding putting similar pressure on Russia. Now, attention turns back to Trump as to whether he will continue his trend of appeasement or double down and force Russia to accept a deal.
Speaking at a press conference on March 13, Putin demanded guarantees that Kyiv will not mobilize or train troops nor receive military aid during the proposed 30-day ceasefire, which some experts see as an attempt to prolong negotiations rather than a sincere attempt at peace.
Putin’s comments came two days after Kyiv agreed to a ceasefire proposed by Washington during talks in Saudi Arabia on the condition that Russia also accept the terms.
Putin also said that further talks are needed to prepare for a ceasefire, including a conversation directly with Trump. The delegation in Moscow was headed by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, and left in the early hours of March 14.
Trump responded that Putin’s statement was “very promising” but “wasn’t complete,” adding he is willing to meet with the Russian president.
Ahead of the Russian leader’s demands, “Trump was very clear: Accept this or I am going to get tough on you,” John Herbst, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine under George W. Bush, told the Kyiv Independent.
“Trump’s going to look like a world-class fool if he lets Putin get away with saying no to this proposal. Now that doesn’t mean that Trump, therefore, must do something. But there will be serious pressure on him to do something against Russia,” he added.
One potential response could be increasing sanctions, a move that Senator Lindsey Graham has pushed for in the event that Putin rejects the ceasefire proposal.
“If Russia refuses (a ceasefire), we should sanction the hell out of them,” Graham wrote on X on March 11 after Washington and Kyiv inked their deal.
Russia has escaped pressure — so far
Nothing in Trump’s actions since his inauguration in January has indicated any willingness to put pressure on Russia, said Jenny Mathers, a lecturer in international politics at the U.K.’s Aberystwyth University.
Trump has escalated pressure on Ukraine by halting military aid and intelligence sharing until a ceasefire deal was signed, demanding Ukraine sign over natural resource rights to the U.S., berating President Volodymyr Zelensky at a meeting in the Oval Office, suspending a Ukrainian refugee program, and ending USAID funding used to rebuild critical infrastructure struck by Russian missiles.
In contrast, despite threats of doubling down on Russian sanctions, Russia has largely evaded escalatory pressure from Trump.
“One of the few constants in the foreign policy of Trump 2.0 is the affinity for Russia.”
Whether or not Trump is willing to change this stance is still up in the air. Another question is whether or not Trump will view Russia’s new ceasefire demands as a rejection.
“Trump seems to be in the mindset of viewing any demands from Russia as reasonable rather than insane, and no list of concessions demanded from Ukraine (by Russia) as outrageous,” Mathers said.
Still, a scenario where Trump responds to Putin rejecting the deal by throwing his support behind Ukraine is “not entirely far-fetched,” she said.
“Trump is notoriously vain and thin-skinned and easily offended. If he decides that Putin is making him look like a fool in the eyes of the world and not showing him respect, then he could lash out. But even if that happens, Trump could change his mind again,” Mathers added.
“Honestly, one of the few constants in the foreign policy of Trump 2.0 is the affinity for Russia.”
Putin ‘needs this war’
The ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine signed on March 11 featured limited details, including a resumption of U.S. weapons and intelligence, the option to extend beyond the 30 days, and a vague admission of American corporations into Ukrainian mining.
It doesn’t include the preconditions for a ceasefire Putin named last June, which were largely seen as a non-starter and would have been an effective surrender for Ukraine. The demands Putin set included a full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four eastern oblasts – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia – which Russia does not fully control.
According to Ryhor Nizhnikau, a Russia expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, entering peace negotiations may be a delay tactic while Putin furthers his goal of “political capitulation” from Ukraine.
“Putin will try to prolong the negotiations, which in the meantime will give him opportunities to definitely further deteriorate or disrupt relations between Washington and Kyiv and Washington and its European allies within the process,” said Nizhnikau.
Sergei Parkhomenko, a Russian-born columnist and political commentator, agreed that Putin may choose to engage in “long, tedious negotiations,” but that he isn’t yet willing to make concessions or sign a peace deal.
“He needs this war for its own sake, more than he needs victory in it, more than he needs Ukraine, and more than he needs anything else,” Parkhomenko told the Kyiv Independent. “For him, war is a way of life, a method of governing the country, a way of maintaining himself in power.”
In his evening address after Putin made his comments, Zelensky echoed the same sentiment.
“Putin is afraid to say directly to President Trump that he wants to continue this war, that he wants to kill Ukrainians. That’s why they in Moscow demand such preconditions for a ceasefire that will make it impossible or will (postpone it) as long as possible,” Zelensky said.
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The “ball is in (Russia’s) court,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on March 11 after Kyiv and Washington emerged from talks in Saudi Arabia in agreement over a ceasefire proposal. After the negotiations with Washington, Ukraine announced that it was ready to accept a 30-day-long ceasefire…
