Is China Ready for Global Leadership?

Predicting China’s stance on any major global issue starts with a simple question: What is the United States’ position? More often than not, China’s approach will be shaped in reaction to US interests.

For decades, China has worked to erode US influence in the international system—and thanks to US President Donald Trump, it is closer than ever to achieving that goal. But instead of celebrating, Beijing finds itself in the uncomfortable position of having to deliver on its promises to provide global leadership.

Beijing’s selective bids for international influence—whether through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Global Security Initiative, or its attempts to reshape multilateral institutions—remain reactive rather than generative, defined more by opposition to the United States than by a coherent alternative vision. Now, as Washington retreats, Beijing will discover that dismantling a world order is easier than constructing one.

Long before Trump formally labeled China a “strategic competitor,” Beijing had already internalized the idea that the United States was an implacable adversary bent on containing the People’s Republic. This belief has been a constant in Chinese strategic thinking since the Mao era, persisting through the Nixon détente and accelerating with the US-China trade war, which Trump launched during his first term.

The consensus among Chinese scholars is that the US strategic rivalry is systemic, enduring, and epoch-defining. Yan Yilong, a professor at Tsinghua University, describes it as “not merely a disagreement between two sovereign states” but a “structural conflict between the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and American hegemony.”

Opposition to “US hegemony” is also the foundation of Sino-Russian ties, from the 1997 Sino-Russian Joint Declarationon a Multipolar World, to the more recent 2022 “no-limits” partnership. While Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin appear to share a personal rapport, their true bond is strategic.

China’s “New Era”

The notion that China is driving a historic transformation is central to Xi Jinping’s foreign policy. The “new era” concept, enshrined in the Chinese Communist Party constitution in 2017, and in the Sino-Russian strategic partnership in 2019, signals Beijing’s belief that the global balance of power is shifting in its favor. “New era” is closely tied to another phrase, “great changes unseen in a century,” which describes the decline of US hegemony and the emergence of a multipolar world.

Xi made it explicit that he sees himself and Putin as architects of this new era when he told Putin in March 2023, “right now, there are changes—the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years—and we are the ones driving these changes together. 

Beijing understands the Washington-led postwar order as an unjust mechanism for preserving US dominance. Prolific Chinese analyst Zheng Yongnian put it bluntly in a recent discussion on the US-Russia peace talks: “Before World War II, there was the colonial order and imperial rule; after the war, the US alliance system and the Cold War order were constructed.” 

As such, Beijing has sought to reform, undermine, and offer alternatives in its bid for global leadership.

Along with other countries, it has pushed for International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank reform and sought to increase its influence within the United Nations. It has put forward China-centric alternatives to the status quo, launchinginitiatives like the BRI. It has also stepped up its courtship of the “Global South,” expanding the Cold War-era non-aligned movement through the BRICS+ grouping and casting itself as the champion of former colonies pushing back against Western dominance. 

Resistance to US hegemony even casts a shadow over domestic policy. China’s “Dual Circulation Strategy,” “Made in China 2025,” or “Military-Civil Fusion”—behind this sweeping securitization of China’s economy lies a single, long-standing threat: US dominance of the international system.

In other words, China has spent the past decade, if not longer, dedicated to breaking America’s grip over the levers of global power.

Enter Trump

Since then, a third architect of Xi and Putin’s “new era” has emerged—one who has, in a single month, done more damage to the United States’ global leadership credentials than Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have achieved in a decade: US President Donald Trump.

Trump’s America is still more than capable of exerting hegemonic influence. Like Western analysts, Chinese commentators view his foreign policy as a return to 19th-century expansionism. But he has also single-handedly unraveled a world order that Beijing saw as the most effective instrument of US power.

But now, after spending so long on rival bids for global leadership, can China deliver?

During Trump’s first term, Beijing attempted to capitalize on US isolationism, presenting itself as a defender of globalization and multilateralism. It is seeking to do the same this time around. Top foreign policy official Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference that China is “providing the greatest certainty in this uncertain world.”

Judged on rhetoric alone, there can be no question that China currently is a more responsible global actor than the United States, but its approach to global leadership remains selective. Designed mostly as opposition statements, Chinese-led initiatives do not yet function as credible alternatives to US-led institutions.

The BRI, for example, is branding for a loose patchwork of bilateral deals rather than a framework for global governance. Chinese initiatives like the Global Security Initiative (GSI), or foreign policy concepts like Xi Jinping’s “community of common destiny” (CCD) are defined by opposition to Western structures, rather than as propositions for something substantively new. 

The CCD concept, for example, is cast in opposition to an “old model” of international relations involving “Cold War thinking” and “zero-sum” politics. It is a wooly concept that envisages a utopian end state of international harmony without providing a road map.

The vagueness of China’s vision for global leadership reflects its primary goal: opposing the status quo rather than constructing a substantive alternative. China’s role to date has been easy, in the same way that criticizing an unpopular government from opposition is easier than governing. But as the US retreats from its traditional leadership role, expectations will shift and China may have to step up.

A Non-Committal Foreign Policy

Since the end of the Mao era, China has pursued a consciously non-committal foreign policy, stressing dialogue and non-interference, prioritizing flexibility over firm alignments, and avoiding political entanglements in order to maximize economic cooperation. This approach has served Beijing well, allowing it to maintain strong ties with rivals like Iran and Saudi Arabia. But if China is to take on more of a leadership role, it will not be able to maintain these self-serving principles. Advocating for harmony and platitudes about “win-win” cooperation work as critiques of US power, but China’s “community of common destiny” is a vision of international relations that cannot work in practice.

Western reactions to the unraveling of the world order have been dominated by shock and horror, emphasizing the advantage handed to Washington’s adversaries. Chinese commentary on the other hand, contains a healthy dose of schadenfreude, but it is far from jubilant, and the prevailing mood is one of caution—of bracing for the storm ahead.

When not opposing the United States, the other mantra of the Chinese Communist Party is stability. China has reaped enormous benefits from the postwar international order, and while the current turmoil may seem like an opportunity, it could turn out to be a poisoned chalice.

Beijing’s vision for a Chinese-led world order—of an end to “might makes right” politics and the beginning of a new harmonious era—has never felt more distant. Unless Beijing is willing to step up in ways it has so far avoided, this vision will remain purely rhetorical.

Filling the Gaps

By aligning with Putin’s position on Ukraine, Trump’s United States has proven itself as much an adversary of the “West” as Moscow. For European leaders, the temptation will be to seek rapprochement with China. But while Europe’s geopolitical priorities have shifted radically, it must not begin taking Beijing’s promises of “certainty” at face value. 

China has long pursued a hard-edged realist foreign policy—its rhetoric of multilateralism and international order does not equate to shared values with Europe. Europeans have a record of viewing cooperation with China as a panacea in times of crisis, but they should avoid reverting to old naive assumptions about Beijing’s intentions. Rather than looking to Beijing to fill the void left by the United States, Europe must step up and fill the gaps itself.

This article previews our IPQ Spring 2025 issue “The China Factor,” out on March 27.

Jacob Mardell is a senior fellow and chair of Sinification, an organization that tracks and analyses Chinese elite discourse on the PRC’s international relations. He is also the editorial coordinator of a China-focused media project at the German NGO n-ost.

Visited 1 times, 1 visit(s) today

Related Article

China’s Campus Propaganda Pipeline – China Media Project

In a move that highlights China’s expanding use of institutions down to the local level to supercharge the state’s global influence efforts, the School of Foreign Languages at Xi’an Jiaotong University, a leading public university in the central Chinese city, has formed a partnership with a center run by the province’s propaganda office.  On March

I bought my Tesla years before Elon Musk went MAGA. Don’t judge me

To the editor: When did the brand of car I drive become a political statement? I’ve driven an electric car for 12 years not to make a statement, but to do my small part to fight climate change. But lately, my 2013 Tesla Model S with 112,000 miles has become a symbol of my “support”

Yunus to visit Beijing, meet Xi on March 28

DHAKA: Chief adviser Muhammad Yunus will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on March 28, underscoring the continued efforts of both nations to deepen their strategic cooperation. The meeting will also mark the 50th anniversary of Bangladesh-China diplomatic relations, and there is apossibility of signing several bilateral agreements, said a diplomatic source. At the

Schumer votes to keep government open

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., says he will vote to keep the government open, warning that a shutdown has worse consequences for Americans and would only empower President Trump and Elon Musk further. “I believe it is my job to make the best choice for the country to minimize the harms to the American

Jeff Bezos Is Genius Who Helped Benefit Himself And The World With Amazon, VC Says: ‘The Beneficiary Is The Consumer’ – Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Venture capitalist Tim Draper has invested in companies such as Hotmail, Skype, Tesla and SpaceX over the years. While he’s never invested in Amazon.com Inc AMZN, he couldn’t help but praise founder Jeff Bezos for changing the world. Capitalism for Good: Draper is best known for his focus on Bitcoin these days. The venture capitalist

Compass reportedly near a deal to acquire HomeServices

Illustration by Real Estate News/Shutterstock The brokerage giant “is in advanced talks” to buy HomeServices of America, the real estate arm of Warren Buffet’s empire, the Wall Street Journal reports. Compass’ appetite for brokerage competitors continues as the company appears to be pursuing another large player in the residential real estate space.  According to the

Compass In Talks To Acquire BHHS

Compass could be continuing its period of expansion with a massive growth spurt in the form of a deal to buy Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices.  The Wall Street Journal first reported the residential giant was in talks for the country’s fourth-largest brokerage, according to RealTrends.   Terms of the deal have not yet been reported.  The move

Trump asks Supreme Court to allow him to end birthright citizenship

CNN  —  President Donald Trump’s administration asked the Supreme Court in a series of emergency appeals Thursday to allow him to move forward with plans to end birthright citizenship, elevating a fringe legal theory that several lower courts have resoundingly rejected. In a series of emergency appeals, the Trump administration argued that lower courts had

Can the US pry Russia away from China?

Western politicians have repeatedly called on China to limit or cease tacit support for Russia’s bloody war against Ukraine. In response, China’s leadership insists it is committed to peace and respect for the territorial integrity of other nations. But unlike most United Nations member states, China has never condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and

Trump sued by 20 states to halt ‘dismantling’ of Education Department

A security guard walks past the U.S. Department of Education headquarters in Washington, D.C., March 12, 2025. Nathan Howard | Reuters A group of Democratic state attorneys general filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration Thursday over its moves to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education and its termination of nearly half the agency’s staff.

Putin says Russia backs Ukraine ceasefire plan but there are nuances

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a bilateral meeting at the Grand Kremin Palace, March 13, 2025, in Moscow, Russia. President of Belarus Lukashenko is having first foreign trip after re-election. Contributor | Getty Images News | Getty Images Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said Russia agrees in principle with the U.S.-led ceasefire plan

Russia Says It Has Retaken Key Kursk Town From Ukraine

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Thursday that the military had regained full control of the town of Sudzha, the main population center in the part of the Kursk region of Russia that Ukrainian troops had captured last summer. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed a retreat from the town, where the previous night Kyiv’s military had reported

One of Wall Street’s big bulls cuts S&P 500 target, blaming Trump’s tariffs

Widely-followed strategist Ed Yardeni, one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street, lowered his market forecast, saying President Donald Trump’s tariffs raise the risk of stagflation. “It has dawned on Wall Street (and us!) that President Trump’s tariffs aren’t negotiating chips to help the U.S. lower tariffs around the world, promoting free trade,” Yardeni said

Elon Musk’s mistakes

Wake up. We’re slowly slip-sliding into a Russian-orchestrated coup. This goes way beyond the jokey rumors that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is blackmailing Donald Trump with a secret, compromising ‘pee tape.’ Consider how the U.S. voted in the United Nations with Russia, China and Iran against American supposed ally, Ukraine. Now there’s the shocking Oval

Russia’s Putin tells Kursk troops to “defeat” Ukraine as Witkoff flies in

Putin is expected to give a press conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a key ally, later Thursday. Rubio, meanwhile, may discuss the war when he meets with the top diplomats at the Group of Seven, or G-7, summit in Quebec, Canada on Thursday. That might be an awkward appointment for the secretary of state

US officials travel to Moscow as Putin visits troops in Kursk

US President Donald Trump said negotiators were on their way to Russia to present a ceasefire proposal backed by Ukraine. ADVERTISEMENT US President Donald Trump claimed on Wednesday that Washington’s negotiators were on their way “right now” for talks on a proposed ceasefire with Ukraine, after Kyiv agreed to a 30-day truce. Trump declined to

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has this Thanks and All the Best message for Elon Musk

Elon Musk has reposted a recent video shared by entrepreneur Mario Nawfal, in which JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon praises Musk, calling him “our Einstein.” The video, now making waves on social media, captures Dimon highlighting Musk’s achievements across Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink. “You’ve got to look at Elon, at SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink –

Who is Doug Ford, the Canadian standing up to Trump?

As leaders around the world try to figure out how best to deal with the new Trump administration, one Canadian official has come out swinging. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a regular on major US networks where he has addressed Americans directly, was among the first in Canada to pull US alcohol off the shelves as

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x