Fifteen of the 16 clubs left in the Champions League (not you, PSV) have something to play for as they head into the last-16 second legs this week.

But how much hope should each side have, and how do form, momentum and which side of the bracket a team is in impact their chances?

Using The Athletic’s projections — powered by Opta — we broke the 16 teams down into four categories: Confident, Hopeful, Precarious and Probably Doomed.

Read on to see where your team lies.

Confident

Liverpool

Liverpool looked vulnerable in their last-16 first leg against Paris Saint-Germain but still came away with a 1-0 lead thanks to Alisson’s heroics and Harvey Elliott’s late strike. They are favourites to clinch the title per our Champions League projections with a 24 per cent chance — having begun the campaign at five per cent — and, according to our projections, have a 76 per cent probability of seeing off PSG at Anfield this week. That’s lower than five other clubs but if they get past the Parisians, the predictive model has high hopes for them.

Their potential quarter-final opponents are Aston Villa, with (probably) Arsenal or Real Madrid to come in the semi-finals. The path then is not simple but Liverpool will be favourites in all those matchups, having gone unbeaten in four matches against those three teams this season (two wins, two draws).

(Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)

Barcelona

The first leg away at Benfica was always going to be a challenge, especially after Pau Cubarsi was sent off in the 22nd minute. Yet, Barcelona adapted and showed the kind of resilience they have lacked time and again in Europe to bring a 1-0 advantage to the home leg. Our projections give them a 17 per cent chance of winning the Champions League, almost double the nine per cent it was after four games in the league stage.

If they get the job done, they will face either Lille or Borussia Dortmund (who they beat 3-2 at Signal Iduna Park in the league phase) in the quarter-finals. That favourable matchup gives Barcelona a 69 per cent chance of making the semi-finals, the highest among all teams left in the competition.

Arsenal

Arsenal have scored one goal in their last three Premier League matches but put seven past PSV in the first leg. Their Jekyll and Hyde nature up the pitch — both in creativity and finishing — should not take away from the fact that they have conceded just 28 goals in 37 matches across the two competitions. A watertight defence is often crucial to knockout tournament success and is the reason our Opta-powered projections gives them a 17 per cent chance of winning the title.

That path to the showpiece game would probably involve beating Real Madrid and Liverpool as things stand. A challenging task but not impossible given Madrid’s struggles and the recent frailties Liverpool have shown.

Inter

Speaking of defensive solidity, Inter have the best record in the Champions League, with a solitary goal conceded in nine matches. A professional display away at Feyenoord saw them return home with a 2-0 lead, giving them a whopping 97 per cent chance of winning the tie.

Inter have consistently been rated highly by our projections. They began the season with a 11 per cent chance of winning the title, which rose 12 per cent at the halfway stage and is now at 15 per cent. Bayern Munich and Barcelona, two teams they defeated en route to winning their last Champions League in 2010, could be their next two opponents. Inter would very much love it if history repeated itself.

(Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

Hopeful

Real Madrid

Madrid are starting to find their feet in the most important part of the season as they seem to do every year. After two 1-1 draws against Atletico Madrid in La Liga, they came away with a crucial advantage from the first leg in European competition.

So why are they only rated as the fifth-most-likely side to win the Champions League this season? Well, a second leg away at Atletico followed by a probable quarter-final with Arsenal can be filed under ‘tricky’ but as we all know by now — disregard the 15-time European champions at your own peril.

Bayern Munich

Vincent Kompany has steered Bayern towards reclaiming the Bundesliga title despite the weekend home defeat by Bochum, while they are primed to make it into the Champions League quarter-finals after defeating Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in the first leg.

Inter will likely await them in the quarter-finals and our projections currently give Bayern a 40 per cent chance of making the semis. If they make it into the last four, Kompany will probably come up against Hansi Flick, who won Bayern their last Champions League title in his first season in charge.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa have only a one per cent chance of winning the title but their late flurry in Bruges last week has them on the cusp of a quarter-final spot.

Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford have proven to be astute additions with the ability to alter the flow of games from the bench. Add in Unai Emery’s experience in Europe, and Villa will fancy their chances against most teams, including likely quarter-final opponents Liverpool (who could only draw 2-2 at Villa Park last month).

(Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Lille

Lille have never progressed past the round of 16 across their seven previous Champions League campaigns, most recently losing 4-1 on aggregate in that stage to Chelsea in 2021-22. But against a Borussia Dortmund team that is a shadow of the side that made last season’s final, this is arguably their best opportunity.

Lille have many talented players, including Jonathan David, Alexsandro Ribeiro, Angel Gomes and Edon Zhegrova, as well as an experienced coach in Bruno Genesio. A first Champions League quarter-final would be a deserved result for a team who started the season with a 52 per cent change of league-phase elimination but now have a 62 per cent chance of getting to the last eight.

Precarious

Atletico Madrid

Between 2013 and 2017, Atletico were eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid in each season. That old sinking feeling may be back on Wednesday night.

Both La Liga meetings between the teams this season have ended in draws, which would not be enough for Diego Simeone’s men this week. Our projections give them just a 26 per cent chance of progression, but this team looks capable of ending their European heartbreak against Madrid. Can they pull it off?

Paris Saint-Germain

In five of the last eight seasons, PSG have exited the Champions League at the last-16 stage, and that looks like a possibility again. They currently have just a 24 per cent chance of getting past Arne Slot’s side. Stranger things have happened, though, and if PSG can flip the script by overturning a first-leg deficit rather than succumbing to defeat (or in fact, throwing away sizeable leads like they did against Barcelona in 2017 and Manchester United in 2018), their chances of winning the title — currently just four per cent — will receive a significant boost.

(Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)

Benfica

Barring quarter-final runs in 2015-16, 2021-22 and 2022-23, Benfica have spent the better part of the last decade getting bounced out in the group stage or last 16. That looks likely again after they failed to take advantage of having an extra man for 70-plus minutes (including stoppages) in the first leg against Barcelona.

But the Estadi Lluis Companys is no Camp Nou and Benfica have won four of their five away games in the tournament this season. They also scored four past Barcelona in the league phase, so this tie is far from over. But Alvaro Carreras’ absence through suspension removes a key threat, which contributes to their chances of progression to the last eight being reduced to just 12 per cent.

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund have had a disappointing season and early elimination from the Champions League would fit well into that theme. Niko Kovac replacing Nuri Sahin has yet to have the desired impact, with Dortmund winning just three of his eight games in charge (three defeats). They are 10th in the Bundesliga, seven points off fourth spot, with nine games remaining. All of that explains why they have only a 38 per cent change of making the quarter-finals, despite their tie with Lille being level at 1-1 after the first leg in Germany.

(Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty Images)

Doomed

PSV

A historic thrashing against Arsenal has PSV on the cusp of going out. Not even a remontada of 2016-17 Barcelona proportions can stave off elimination. To cap it off, Arsenal have lost just one of their 17 home games across the Premier League and Champions League. It’s over.

Bayer Leverkusen

When Leverkusen drew Bayern, there was hope of progression, given Xabi Alonso’s apparent stranglehold over the Bundesliga leaders. Yet Leverkusen’s first-leg performance left a lot to be desired.

It is not unheard of for teams to overturn a 3-0 deficit in the Champions League, especially with the second leg at home. But with talisman Florian Wirtz out injured, our projections give them just a four per cent chance of making it through to the last eight. This is likely a bridge too far.

(Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)

Club Brugge

Brugge were excellent for most of the first leg against Villa and a 1-1 scoreline was reflective of how well they had matched up against the team they beat 1-0 in the league phase. An error-strewn end to the game has them on the cusp of elimination after a 3-1 defeat.

In Hans Vanaken, Ferran Jutgla and first-leg goalscorer Maxim De Cuyper, among others, Brugge have the talent to cause Villa serious problems. Unfortunately, they may have just given themselves a bit too much to do.

Feyenoord

Feyenoord only face a two-goal deficit against Inter and scored three against both Bayern and Manchester City this season. But they are up against an Inter team that refuses to concede in Europe, have lost just one home game across competitions and who are unbeaten in their last five matches.

Piotr Zielinski’s penalty miss in the first leg has left just a crack in the door, but our projections give the Eredivisie side just a three per cent chance of getting into the quarter-finals.

(Header photo: Valentin Flauraud/AFP via Getty Images)