SOMETHING AWFUL is happening in Congo. A rebel group called M23 seized control of Goma, the biggest city in the east of the country, on January 27th, killing several UN peacekeepers and prompting hundreds of thousands of locals to flee. Hardly anyone outside central Africa knows who M23 are or why they are fighting. So here’s a helpful analogy: Donbas.
In 2014 Vladimir Putin grabbed much of Donbas, an eastern region of Ukraine, and pretended he had not. As a figleaf he used supposedly local separatists, whom Russia armed, supplied and directed. These forces, he claimed, were protecting ethnic Russians from persecution. The Kremlin denied that the Russian army itself was on the ground assisting the rebels, though it was. Later, after Mr Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he annexed the bogus statelets he had created.
Rwanda’s dictator, Paul Kagame, has copied these tactics in eastern Congo. The M23 rebels are armed, supplied and directed by his regime. They claim to be protecting Congolese Tutsis from persecution, but the threat to them is exaggerated. M23 is in fact a proxy for Rwanda, allowing it to grab a big chunk of Congolese territory while pretending not to. Thousands of Rwandan troops have crossed into Congo to help. Rwanda denies something that observers on the ground can plainly see.
All this adds to Congo’s horrific turmoil. Its various conflicts have driven 8m people from their homes, including 400,000 in the past month. In much of the east, men with guns rape and plunder with impunity. Precious minerals are systematically looted; Rwanda, which mines little gold at home, has mysteriously become a large gold exporter.
The parallel between Russia and Rwanda is imperfect. Rwanda has not formally annexed any of its neighbour’s land. And whereas Ukraine is a functioning democracy, Congo is chaotic. Dozens of armed groups ravage the east. Rwanda is far from the only predator, but it is the most powerful. Following the Donbas model, it has informally created something that looks a lot like a puppet state on Congolese soil. And it may not stop at Goma. Some observers worry that Mr Kagame ultimately aims to topple the Congolese government.
Rwanda’s actions are not merely illegal and wrong. They are a worrying symptom of a decaying international order. The taboo against taking other people’s territory is crumbling, with Mr Putin spilling rivers of blood for soil, China menacing other countries’ territorial waters and now President Donald Trump talking of expanding American territory. Against such a background, it is unsurprising when other leaders conclude that imperialism is back in fashion.
Rwanda’s malign behaviour in Congo is not new. M23 first seized Goma in 2012. But donors swiftly pressed Mr Kagame’s regime to pull the gunmen back, and a UN peacekeeping force all but crushed the group. Now the UN is weaker in Congo. Outside powers are distracted, and Rwanda has more patrons than it did in 2012, such as China, Qatar and Turkey. Under Joe Biden, American diplomats warned Mr Kagame against adventurism, keeping him partially in check. No one knows what Mr Trump’s policy is, but it probably does not involve an articulation of why “might makes right” is a recipe for misery.
Other Western governments are torn. Many have a soft spot for Rwanda. Its domestic orderliness makes it easier to run development projects there. Its soldiers serve on UN peacekeeping missions and protect French gas operations in Mozambique. Donors often give Mr Kagame the benefit of the doubt.
Enough. Rwanda is heavily aid-dependent. Donors should lean harder on it. America, which has had military ties with Rwanda, could change Mr Kagame’s incentives with a phone call. Other African states should speak up, too. The alternative—to let Mr Kagame keep his Donbas—is far worse. A world in which the strong seize territory from the weak would be a scarier, more violent place. If such a blatant breach of a country’s borders is allowed to stand, there will be more of them.
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