The first time Donald Trump was president of the United States, he implemented a ban on travel to the US from seven Muslim-majority countries, suspended the issuance of H1-Bs (post-study work visas), and cancelled thousands of Chinese students’ study visas, among other orders impacting international students.

Not even a month into President Trump’s second presidency, the US international sector is bracing for immigration changes that could affect their students as well as their ability to recruit overseas.

So far, President Trump has issued several Executive Orders that may have negative consequences for both prospective and current students. Within one of the orders is a direction for his administration to “begin the process of restoring a potential travel ban within 60 days.”

Protecting the US is priority number one

On 20 January, the President signed an order that while vague, sounds ominous: “PROTECTING THE UNITED STATES FROM FOREIGN TERRORISTS AND OTHER NATIONAL SECURITY AND PUBLIC SAFETY THREATS.”

The order mandates that immigration officials adopt the following guidance, which will likely affect the issuance and processing of some study and work visas:

• “Identify all resources that may be used to ensure that all aliens seeking admission to the United States, or who are already in the United States, are vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible;
• Evaluate all visa programs to ensure that they are not used by foreign nation-states or other hostile actors to harm the security, economic, political, cultural, or other national interests of the United States;
• Identify countries throughout the world for which vetting and screening information is so deficient as to warrant a partial or full suspension on the admission of nationals from those countries pursuant to section 212(f) of the INA;
• Identify nationals from those countries have entered or have been admitted into the United States on or since January 20, 2021, and take immediate steps to exclude or remove that alien unless she determines that doing so would inhibit a significant pending investigation or prosecution of the alien for a serious criminal offense or would be contrary to the national security interests of the United States;
• Take additional actions to protect the American people and our constitutional republic from foreign threats.”

NAFSA assessed the potential ramifications for the industry from the order, and determined that:

• “Increased scrutiny could result in delays and additional requirements for student and scholar visa applicants.
• Students and scholars from countries identified through the process described in Section 2 may face bans on admission to the United States or increased visa denials.”

Legal firm Feagre Drinker provides this analysis:

“The language of this order appears to authorize the government to deny visas or entry to the United States based on perceived political opinions, religious beliefs or cultural backgrounds. The order further authorizes the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to remove nationals of those above-identified countries who are already legally in the United States, unless doing so would impede the pending investigation of that foreign national for serious criminal offense, or if doing so would be contrary to the national security interests of the United States.

It is not yet certain which vetting techniques the U.S. Department of State may use to carry out these directives, but it is expected that additional enhancements will only add to already increased wait times for clearances.”

Free speech on the line

President Trump signed another Executive Order on 29 January meant to combat antisemitism in the country. He pledged to deport any international student who has participated in a pro-Palestinian rally.

Jayden Joeckel, a University of San Francisco student belonging to the group Students for Palestine, told ABC News:

“It is scary knowing that we have to be cognitive about [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] coming into our campus. It is scary that we have to worry about [the Department of Homeland Security] stalking our students and keeping tabs on them for activism.”

He continued:

“[Students] are telling us that they are scared. I think it’s completely reasonable to live in a country where you have rights that are expected to be granted, and when a new administration comes in and tells you that you can be deported for expressing your First Amendment rights – it’s shocking.”

Lawyers are preparing to defend affected students. Jeff Wozniak, attorney with the National Lawyers Guild said:

“These students that are on F-1 visas have First Amendment free speech rights. You don’t get an F-1 visa based on your political views. It is for you to go to college and get an education.”

The University of San Francisco sent an email to students who might be affected, assuring them that:

“The director will not share any student or employee information unless compelled to by a signed court order or a verified claim of imminent danger to public safety.”

Cancelled celebrations

Fears about actions President Trump may direct immigration enforcement officials to carry out on campuses led to Michigan State University’s College of Communications Arts and Sciences cancelling its Lunar New Year celebrations this week. Lauren Gaines, the college’s Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Director Lauren Gaines wrote an email to students explaining the decision:

“This decision comes in response to concerns shared by members of our community regarding the current issuance of Executive Orders related to immigration and diversity, equity, and inclusion. These actions have prompted feelings of uncertainty and hesitation about gathering for events that highlight cultural traditions and communities.”

Ms Gaines then wrote to faculty, some of whom objected to the decision:

“I ask you to view this decision not as a statement of policy, but rather as an appropriate on-the-ground response given a very short decision window and input from students who voiced concerns about gathering for this cultural celebration.”

President Trump has issued several Executive Orders demanding that Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) mandates and employees be terminated in wide-ranging areas such as government, the military, the private sector, and most recently, aviation.

Nothing is confirmed yet

While the Executive Orders may be cause for worry, it’s also possible that the majority of foreign students going to and already studying in the US will be unaffected by them. A Reuters article quotes NAFSA CEO Dr Fanta Aw as saying:

“When you think about the U.S. and its economy, it’s not only about the students, but who they become afterwards. These students become workers, researchers and leaders back home. It’s an important component of U.S. international engagement. Meanwhile, while they’re here, they contribute economically. That is something the U.S. cannot afford to ignore.”

Reuters also investigated study visa approval rates during President Trump’s first administration (2016-20) and found that rates did not change significantly during his time as president.

What’s more, President Trump’s ally and the co-leader of the newly formed “Department of Government Efficiency,” Elon Musk, is in favour of the H1-B visa given how its workers fuel innovation in science and technology. President Trump seems to have changed his tune on the visa category. In his first term, he called H1-B visas “very bad” and “unfair” for US workers. But recently, he has claimed in a phone call with the New York Post that:

“I’ve always liked the visas, I have always been in favor of the visas. That’s why we have them.”

Overall, we can anticipate a mix of immigration policies – some that favour certain types of international students and some that dissuade or prevent students from certain countries from coming.

Julia Gelatt, associate director of US immigration policy at the Migration Policy Institute, said that along with slower visa processing, “some prospective students may be deterred by the unfriendly rhetoric and opt to study elsewhere.” But she does not believe there will be a significant decrease in demand from international students to come to the US:

“The reasons that people come to the United States, the economic and educational opportunities we have here, are still so strong. As long as the US is relatively stable with a strong economy, I think people will want to continue to come.”

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