Potential signal:
- I am a buyer of the USD/JPY pair only.
- I have no interest in shorting this pair, and as such am waiting patiently for a move above the ¥158 level.
- At that point, I would put a stop loss at the ¥157 level and aim for the ¥161.25 level.
In my daily analysis of the US dollar, the first pair I have been looking at recently has of course been the USD/JPY pair, as it has been so important for so long, and it’s worth noting that the trajectory continues to favor the upside, despite the fact that we had rallied so viciously in the month of December. The Japanese yen has been like a punching bag for most currencies, and at this point time it looks like we are consolidating, perhaps trying to absorb some of that massive inertia to the upside that we had previously enjoyed.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair obviously is very bullish, and that of course has not changed. In fact, it is probably worth noting that despite the fact there has been some selling over the last couple of days, the buyers have stepped in and bought the US dollar each time. Because of this, I suspect that it is probably only a matter of time before we take off to the upside, and at this point in time the most support level that I see on the chart is the ¥158 level, because it has been such stringent resistance. Furthermore, this is not the first time that has happened, so I think all in all, you have to assume that any move above there means something rather important.
On the downside, the ¥156 level is a short-term support level, with the ¥155 level being even more important. We were to break down below there, it would change a lot of things, but we also have the 50 Day EMA approaching that level as well, adding more support. With this being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that has plenty of demand for the US dollar, but now it’s only a matter of time before we break out.
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