23rd October 2024 – (Hong Kong) Tropical Cyclone Trami, now upgraded to a severe tropical storm, has intensified this afternoon to become a potent weather system. As of 2pm, it was located approximately 1,200 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong. Over the next two days, Trami is forecasted to traverse the northern part of Luzon Island in the Philippines before heading into the northern part of the South China Sea and passing near Hainan Island. The exact trajectory and intensity of its movement remain variable, with a possibility of lingering near Hainan Island early next week.

According to the latest predictions released by the Hong Kong Observatory, Trami is anticipated to make a significant turn near the vicinity of Hainan Island, crossing the northern part of the South China Sea in an eastward direction. Both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and two artificial intelligence weather prediction models suggest that Trami might perform a rare meteorological manoeuvre known as a “return to the starting point,” moving eastward after reaching the coast near Xingang in central Vietnam by Monday, 28th October.

The spokesperson at the Hong Kong Observatory highlighted that computer models indicate a potential eastward turn near Hainan Island, crossing the northern part of the South China Sea. The ECMWF and other weather prediction models suggest that Trami could perform a unique manoeuvre, potentially moving towards the west by early November after crossing the northern part of the South China Sea, nearing the western coast of Luzon before dissipating in the South China Sea by midweek, or even circling back towards Hainan Island, potentially affecting areas closer to the Pearl River Delta as a long-lasting weather system.