In the weaker half of the draw, Arsenal and Barcelona seem destined to meet, but the race to lift the trophy remains open.
| Champions League Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona to win & BTTS vs Atletico Madrid | +130 |
| Viktor Gyokeres to score anytime vs Sporting | -120 |
| PSG to win the trophy | +500 |
| Real Madrid to win the trophy | +800 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Why being on the wrong side of the draw could be an advantage
With many heavyweights still remaining, the primary contenders for the Champions League title must navigate some significant hurdles. Top seeds Arsenal have the most favourable draw, as they face outsiders Sporting in the last eight. Should they progress, Spanish opposition, such as Barcelona or Atletico Madrid, will await in the semi-finals.
In theory, that draw is a clear advantage for the Gunners.However, they may arrive at the later stages insufficiently tested before facing Europe’s truly elite sides.
Recent winners have tended to get through tough early tests. The 2024 winners, Real Madrid, had to overcome Manchester City and Bayern Munich just to reach the final. Meanwhile, PSG needed to win three two-legged ties against Premier League opponents on their path to glory last term.
That suggests there could actually be an advantage for the teams in the tougher half of the draw. PSG’s domination of English clubs continued in the round of 16 against Chelsea. They will be full of confidence if they knock out Liverpool for the second year running in the last eight.
Nevertheless, the clash between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich might just be the one that defines the tournament. Los Blancos have progressed and gone on to lift the trophy the last four times the clubs have been paired together. If they see off Bayern again, the 15-time winners would arguably become the team to beat.
On the other hand, victory over Real Madrid would be a massive psychological boost for Vincent Kompany’s team. It would give them the confidence they need to push on and defeat the best sides on the continent.
Which teams are best equipped to go all the way?
Home advantage will be crucial in the all-Spanish quarter-final. Barcelona have won their last 17 matches in front of their own fans. They saw off Atletico Madrid 3-0 at home in the Copa del Rey earlier this month, but still lost the tie.
Hansi Flick’s team have conceded in all 10 of their Champions League fixtures this term. That suggests there is real value in backing Barcelona to win and both teams to score in the first leg.
Both teams should be fairly fresh following the international break. However, title-chasing Barca could be vulnerable by the second leg, which will be the clubs’ third meeting in 11 days.
The Catalans are capable of outscoring anyone when they are able to play with intensity. That will be a challenge as the big games keep coming. In the end, it might be fatigue, rather than a leaky defence, that proves to be their undoing this term.
The winners of that tie should face Arsenal, whose extra quality ought to see them past Sporting. They’ll expect Viktor Gyokeres to score against his former employers.
The Swede has averaged a goal every 116 minutes in the Champions League since the start of last season. He is at value as an anytime goalscorer bet on his return to Lisbon.
On the other side of the draw, PSG will fancy their chances of beating Liverpool once again. They created 4.45 xG to the Reds’ 1.86 in last season’s round-of-16 tie.
The Parisians do have a crunch Ligue 1 clash against Lens scheduled between the two legs of their quarter-final. However, Liverpool also have a busy schedule, with every Premier League game important as they aim for a top-five finish.
PSG rose to the big occasion so impressively in Europe last season. With almost the same squad one year later, they are a good choice at their current price.
Having won six of the last 12 editions of the Champions League, Real Madrid also surely offer value. There were signs of defensive improvements in the last round, as they allowed only 2.53 xG across 180 minutes against Manchester City.
Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham have returned to fitness, while Vinicius Junior and Fede Valverde are in top form. A combination of counterattacking football and individual moments of brilliance could make them serious contenders once again.
