Almost 30 per cent of Hong Kong’s international and private schools expect non-local student applications to drop by 13 per cent annually over the next five years, although some institutions anticipate a surge in local demand, a government-commissioned study has found.

Competition for international school places would remain keen if parents merely chose the few institutions considered “the best of the best”, consultancy firm Policy 21 said in its report, quoting some principals.

The study, commissioned by the Education Bureau for projections on the provision of school places until 2029, surveyed 47 international schools, seven private independent schools and 14 private institutions offering non-local curriculums.

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Among the 68 schools, 20 institutions, or 29.4 per cent, anticipated an annual decrease of 13 per cent in admission applications from non-local students in the years up to 2028-29. Six schools expected a 41 per cent annual increase.

Ten institutions anticipated an annual 26 per cent increase in applications from Hong Kong pupils over the five-year period. No schools expected local applications to drop.

The report did not give reasons for the schools’ estimations.

However, the consultancy firm provided its own projection on the number of non-local students in international schools based on gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy of economic activity and a grade transition model, which extrapolates the future enrolment in each form.

According to its statistical model, primary school enrolment would remain “stable”, dropping slightly from 14,652 in the next academic year to 14,629 in 2028-29. At the secondary school level, enrolment will fall from 12,460 to 11,379 over the same period.

The bureau last year said the proportion of non-local students in international schools fell to a five-year low of 65.9 per cent in 2022-23 from 75.5 per cent in 2018-19. For local students, the proportion rose to 34.1 per cent from 24.5 per cent.

The consultancy firm explained that from 2020, both the numbers of non-local students at primary and secondary schools dropped for three years in a row because of the pandemic as many expatriates had moved back to their hometown.

“Some school places vacated by non-local students who had left Hong Kong due to anti-epidemic restrictions were taken up by local students,” the report said.

In the current academic year, the number of non-locals in primary and secondary schools rose by 1.4 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively.

“It is likely that the increase in the enrolment of non-local students in 2023-24 was due to the positive response to the various talent admission schemes,” the report said, without differentiating non-locals from mainland China and overseas.

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The study also projected an overall surplus of international school places – 3,350 at the primary level and 1,077 at secondary in 2028-29 – but competition would remain very keen if parents merely chose the few institutions considered “the best of the best”.

“Places at these few international schools were always oversubscribed … very often the candidates would be found on the waiting lists of multiple schools, too,” according to school heads interviewed by the consultancy firm.

The report said: “From the perspectives of these parents, needless to say, there was always an acute shortage of international school places.”

The report recommended the authorities regularly monitor and review supply and demand for international school places as the government was committed to attracting talent to the city.

It also suggested that a student-mix requirement for some international schools – requiring no less than 70 per cent of students as non-locals – stipulated by a service agreement with the government should be allowed some flexibility. It said the number of non-local students might pick up once there was an economic rebound.

Ruth Benny, founder of Top Schools, a consultancy that specialises in helping expatriates, said the falling number of non-local students could partly be attributed to high tuition fees in some institutions.

“Many non-local families are priced out of international schools as fees continue to soar, not all expats were on top salaries and their children’s education was not always covered by employers,” she said.

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Benny added international schools preferred local families to fill seats as early as possible and rarely held places for relocating families.

“They [locals] apply in September [one year] before whereas relocating families often have no idea they’re coming until a couple of months before,” she said.

A government spokeswoman said it closely monitored the provision of international school places with reference to recommendations in the report.

She added that the bureau would consider allocating vacant campuses or new land for the use of international schools in a bid to satisfy demand from non-local families.