惠譽:地方化債為有助經濟增長趨勢 惟未包經營性債務風險仍存 (17:56) – 20241127 – 即時財經新聞

地方政府財政收入不及預期影響其支出,是今年內地經濟增長乏力的原因之一,孫浩指,明年隨着財政和貨幣政策刺激,加上減稅政策逐步退出,地方政府的一般預算收入或有會邊際改善,幅度取決於刺激政策在多大程度上能夠緩解通縮壓力並加強潛在需求。內地或會在當局加快三中全會提到的財政體制改革,以賦予地方政府更高的財政收入份額和靈活性。隨著化債為地方政府減輕負擔,未來地方政府有更大空間保持基礎設施相關支出的支出強度,以保持地方經濟的投資和增長勢頭。

不過孫浩指出,是次債務置換僅限於2018年時財政部所劃分的隱性債務,即通常由城投企業借入、主要由所在地地方政府現金流償付,用於缺乏實質經營性現金流的公共投資的債務。超過此范圍的城投債務,即經營性債務則不在置換範圍,仍然存在風險。

孫浩指,經營性債務通常用於有一定經營性現金流的準政策性投資,而且規模更大,截至2023年底當局劃定置換的14.3萬億隱性債務,不超過惠譽估計的城投總有息負債的25%,另外,用於債務置換的專項債券缺少匹配的現金流,因為隱性債務主要投向缺乏實質經營性現金流的公共投資。地方政府需要通過再融資來償還這些債務,將增加其槓桿率的結構性壓力。

至於餘下的經營性債務是否會逐漸顯性化,孫浩指取決於投資回報率,債務成本,和監管有效性。自2018至2023年間,地方政府顯性債務餘額增長了122%,而一般預算收入僅增長20%。本次債務置換通過隱債顯性化,雖然可以減少整個公共部門的綜合利息成本,但也會進一步加劇債務與收入增速差距。惠譽對廣義隱性債務管理的有效性持謹慎態度,因為城投企業可能會通過增加經營性債務來為準政策項目融資,項目的經營性現金流仍然偏低,最終可能仍需依賴財政支持部分還本付息。

 

其他報道

李書福增持吉利

永明與按證合作 為客戶轉介保單逆按及安老逆按揭計劃

環聯:本港今年第2季無抵押私人貸款新增貸款宗數按年跌近5%

渣打探討出售波札那、烏干達及贊比亞財富管理及零售銀行業務

證監會:應星控股股權高度集中

全日沽空金額增29% 盈富沽空增1.8倍

富邦財務推私貸app主打年輕市場 期望未來3年貸款額至10億元

恒指收市升443點 科指升3.6% 齊創逾1個月最大升幅 北水流入減少

響應減烈酒稅 屈臣氏酒窖逾百款千元以上烈酒減價

滬指終止三連跌 重上3300點 漲逾1%

【有片:投資王道】王弼:特朗普上台後市場或有大變化 偏向保守投資策略



Source link

Visited 1 times, 1 visit(s) today

Related Article

The Best Trillion-Dollar Stock to Buy for 2026, According to Wall Street

This tech giant could have even more upside than analysts project. At the start of the decade, there were just two companies with a market cap exceeding $1 trillion. Today, 10 publicly traded companies boast 13-figure market caps. Most of them have seen their stock prices climb due to the excitement surrounding generative artificial intelligence

Is Ford Stock a Millionaire-Maker?

After a huge year, shareholders in the Detroit car company are ready for more gains. Ford (F 1.25%) is an iconic Detroit-based car company known for its F-Series lineup of trucks, which have been the best-selling vehicles in the U.S. for 49 straight years. This is a phenomenal trend that reveals just how much the

1 Reason Now Is a Great Time to Buy Berkshire Hathaway Stock

Berkshire Hathaway has just undergone a huge change, but one fact has remained constant. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.30%)(BRK.B +0.00%) has entered a new phase of its existence. At the end of 2025, longtime Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett handed off his job to top lieutenant, Greg Abel. Given Buffett’s long and incredibly successful tenure, it

This Healthcare Stock Could Be One of the Best Companies to Own in 2026

It has strong momentum thanks to its current portfolio and several catalysts on the horizon. Over the past five years, Eli Lilly (LLY 1.90%) has been on a tear. It has made significant breakthroughs in the pharmaceutical space, and financial results have soared, with the stock price following suit. Last year, it became the first

3 Millionaire-Maker Technology Stocks Worth a Look

These high-risk, high-reward stocks could generate huge gains if they can become market leaders in their respective fields. If you’re looking for stocks that could be millionaire makers, you’re going to have to take some big swings. You are going to have to consider stocks that carry a higher risk, but could also generate huge

The average S&P 500 company is spending less time in the index

A version of this article first appeared on TKer.co The stock market and broad market indices, such as the S&P 500, are not static. The stocks that comprise the market are as companies grow, shrink, merge, privatize, or go bellyup. “On average, 20% of S&P 500 constituents turn over every five years,” Goldman Sachs’ Ben

3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy in January

Historically, January has been a strong month for the stock market. The calendar has flipped over to 2026, but this is no time for a post-holiday lull. Historically, major names in the stock market have enjoyed solid gains in the first month of the year. According to Citadel, Nasdaq-100 stocks, as a group, have risen

Prediction: 2026 Will Be Known as the “Year of the Bubble” on Wall Street

Up to four potential bubbles are threatening to burst in the new year. For three years, the stock market has provided investors with plenty of reasons to smile. When 2025 came to a close, the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.65%) had climbed by 16%, marking the third consecutive year of gains tallying 15% or greater.

As Warren Buffett retires, here’s his final piece of advice to investors.

Image source: The Motley Fool After a lifetime of building wealth in the stock market, on 31 December, billionaire investor Warren Buffett officially stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B). But prior to his journey into retirement, the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ gave some final words of advice for investors. As we start 2026, here

Is the Stock Market Going to Crash in 2026? Here Is What History Suggests

Important indicators are flashing warning signs to investors that the stock market may be getting overvalued. Last year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.65%) gained 16% — marking the third straight year the index generated double-digit returns. While stocks have gotten off to a hot start to begin 2026, two important indicators suggest that a pullback

Investor Michael Burry Reveals Options Bet Against Oracle

Photographer: Jim Spellman/WireImage (Bloomberg) — Michael Burry, the famed investor who has drawn attention in recent months for criticism of the artificial intelligence boom, is betting against Oracle Corp. Burry owns put options on Oracle shares, he said in a Substack post after markets closed on Friday. Puts typically increase in value as the price

This ETF Is the Simplest Path to $1 Million in 2026

You don’t need to be a stock market genius to build a million-dollar portfolio. Many investors dream of building a $1 million portfolio. Often, they think all they need is one great stock pick and go searching for diamonds in the rough and undervalued opportunities every month. It’s true that many millionaires have been minted

3 Growth Stocks to Invest $1,000 in Right Now

You might want to make a point of looking a little bit off the beaten path in the current market environment. Do you need some new names for the growth portion of your portfolio, but you’re worried about the market’s go-to growth picks’ steep valuations? If this sounds like you right now, don’t worry —

Intel Stock Just Keeps Soaring. Is It Too Late to Buy?

Intel’s stock has surged on fresh political support and product momentum, as its turnaround appears to be gaining traction. Shares of Intel (INTC +10.80%) have been on a tear, and the latest push higher has come from an unusual place: Washington. In the past few days, investors have watched a mix of headlines pile up

Stocks rally, dollar higher in wake of US jobs numbers

Item 1 of 2 Futures-options traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange’s NYSE American (AMEX) in New York City, U.S., January 6, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid [1/2]Futures-options traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange’s NYSE American (AMEX) in New York City, U.S., January 6, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Purchase

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x