大摩:美股幾乎沒有進入熊市跡象 (11:14) – 20240814 – 即時財經新聞

報道稱,Wilson在7月準確預測了股市近期的下行。他說,由於交易員在上周的大跌後仍心有餘悸,因此不太可能出現大的崩盤。這種觀點與近年來令Wilson聲名鵲起的大膽看跌觀點形成了鮮明對比。不過,他仍然認為標普500指數幾乎沒有上漲空間,預計該基準指數將在5,000-5,400點區間波動,這個區間的下限意味著股市從周二水平下跌大約7%,上限則基本與當前水平持平。

Wilson表示,「我發現很難想像我們會向那些高點突破回升」,「我也不認為我們會完全崩潰並預示進入一個新的熊市」。Wilson說,標普500指數今年已經上漲超過13%,經濟增長放緩、盈利預期過於樂觀以及聯儲局「不願主動」減息,都為進一步上漲帶來了具有挑戰性的環境。他認為機會在個股而不是大盤,並重申買入防禦性股票的建議。

Wilson提到了股市的高估值水平,稱「指數很難讓我感到興奮,這就是為什麼我們為了賺錢非常專注於個股層面和行業層面」。

 

在7月9日的時候,Wilson預測股市「極有可能」出現10%的回調。一周後的7月16日,標普500指數創下新高,隨後一路下跌8.5%,於8月5日觸及近期低點。此後該指數已回升逾4%。Wilson繼續敦促投資者遠離小型股羅素2000指數,表示該指數上個月的漲勢是一個假動作,源於投資者撤出上漲的超級大型股並回補小型股的淡倉。Wilson說,此後出現的負面技術形態表明,小型股7月份的躍升是 「曇花一現」。

他補充說,這並不意味著交易員應該完全避開中小型股,只是在其中尋找機會時應該堅持高質量原則、選擇基本面強勁的公司。

Wilson重申,鑒於聯儲局準備在9月放鬆政策,市場仍處於尾聲階段的周期。「堅持高質量原則,偏重防禦而非增長」,他說。「因為利率下降對這個群體最有利」。

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