內地12月CPI升0.8%符預期 PPI跌1.9%少過預期 (09:39) – 20260109 – 即時財經新聞

而12月工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)連續第39個月下跌,按年下降1.9%,低過市場預期的下降2%,11月為下降2.2%。而跌1.9%,是2024年8月後最佳,當日跌1.8%。

國家統計局城市司首席統計師董莉娟解讀指,12月份,擴內需促消費政策措施繼續顯效,疊加元旦臨近,居民消費需求增加,CPI按月上漲0.2%,按年上漲0.8%,扣除食品和能源價格的核心CPI按年上漲1.2%。受國際大宗商品價格傳導拉動以及國內重點行業產能治理相關政策持續顯效等因素影響,PPI按月上漲0.2%,按年下降1.9%。

報告內容:
國家統計局城市司首席統計師董莉娟解讀2025年12月份CPI和PPI數據

12月份,擴內需促消費政策措施繼續顯效,疊加元旦臨近,居民消費需求增加,居民消費價格指數(CPI)按月上漲0.2%,按年上漲0.8%,扣除食品和能源價格的核心CPI按年上漲1.2%。受國際大宗商品價格傳導拉動以及國內重點行業產能治理相關政策持續顯效等因素影響,工業生產者出廠價格指數(PPI)按月上漲0.2%,按年下降1.9%。

一、CPI按月由降轉漲,按年漲幅繼續擴大,核心CPI上漲1.2%

CPI按月由上月下降0.1%轉為上漲0.2%,按月上漲主要受除能源外的工業消費品價格上漲影響。扣除能源的工業消費品價格上漲0.6%,影響CPI按月上漲約0.16個百分點。其中,提振消費政策效果持續顯現,疊加元旦臨近,居民購物娛樂需求增加,通信工具、母嬰用品、文娛耐用消費品、家用器具價格均有上漲,漲幅在1.4%-3.0%之間;受國際金價上行影響,國內金飾品價格上漲5.6%。能源價格下降0.5%,其中受國際油價變動影響,國內汽油價格下降1.2%,影響CPI按月下降約0.04個百分點。食品價格上漲0.3%,影響CPI按月上漲約0.05個百分點。其中,節前消費需求增加,鮮果和蝦蟹類價格分別上漲2.6%和2.5%;天氣條件相對較好,鮮菜價格上漲0.8%,漲幅低於季節性水平3.3個百分點;生豬產能較為充足,豬肉價格下降1.7%。

CPI按年上漲0.8%,漲幅比上月擴大0.1個百分點,回升至2023年3月份以來最高,按年漲幅擴大主要是食品價格漲幅擴大拉動。食品價格上漲1.1%,漲幅比上月擴大0.9個百分點,對CPI按年的上拉影響比上月增加約0.17個百分點。食品中,鮮菜和鮮果價格漲幅分別擴大至18.2%和4.4%,對CPI按年的上拉影響比上月合計增加約0.16個百分點;牛肉、羊肉和水產品價格分別上漲6.9%、4.4%和1.6%,漲幅均有擴大;豬肉價格下降14.6%,降幅略有收窄。能源價格下降3.8%,降幅比上月擴大0.4個百分點,其中汽油價格降幅擴大至8.4%。扣除食品和能源價格的核心CPI按年上漲1.2%,漲幅連續4個月保持在1%以上。服務價格上漲0.6%,影響CPI按年上漲約0.25個百分點。其中,家庭服務價格上漲1.2%;房租價格下降0.3%。扣除能源的工業消費品價格上漲2.5%,影響CPI按年上漲約0.63個百分點。其中,金飾品價格漲幅繼續擴大至68.5%;家用器具和家庭日用雜品價格漲幅分別擴大至5.9%和3.2%;燃油小汽車和新能源小汽車價格降幅分別收窄至2.4%和2.2%。

二、PPI按月漲幅擴大,按年降幅收窄

PPI按月上漲0.2%,連續3個月上漲,漲幅比上月擴大0.1個百分點。本月PPI按月運行的主要特點:一是供需結構改善帶動部分行業價格上漲。重點行業產能治理與市場競爭秩序綜合整治持續顯效,煤炭開採和洗選業、煤炭加工價格按月分別上漲1.3%和0.8%,均連續5個月上漲;鋰離子電池製造價格上漲1.0%,水泥製造價格上漲0.5%,均連續3個月上漲;新能源車整車製造價格由上月下降0.2%轉為上漲0.1%。需求季節性增加帶動燃氣生產和供應業、電力熱力生產和供應業價格分別上漲1.2%和1.0%,羽絨加工、毛紡織染整精加工價格分別上漲1.2%和1.0%。二是輸入性因素影響國內有色金屬和石油相關行業價格走勢分化。國際有色金屬價格上行拉動國內有色金屬礦採選業、有色金屬冶煉和壓延加工業價格按月分別上漲3.7%和2.8%,其中銀冶煉、金冶煉、銅冶煉、鋁冶煉價格分別上漲13.5%、4.8%、4.6%和0.9%。國際原油價格下行影響國內石油開採、精煉石油產品製造價格分別下降2.3%和0.9%。

PPI按年下降1.9%,降幅比上月收窄0.3個百分點。國內各項宏觀政策持續顯效,部分行業價格呈現積極變化。一是全國統一大市場建設縱深推進,相關行業價格按年降幅持續收窄。市場競爭秩序不斷優化,煤炭開採和洗選業、鋰離子電池製造、光伏設備及元器件製造價格降幅比上月分別收窄2.9個、1.2個和0.4個百分點,已分別連續收窄5個月、4個月和9個月。二是新質生產力培育壯大,帶動相關行業價格按年上漲。數字經濟相關產業發展勢頭強勁,新原料新材料生產快速增長,綠色轉型持續賦能發展,外存儲設備及部件價格上漲15.3%,生物質液體燃料價格上漲9.0%,石墨及碳素制品製造價格上漲5.5%,集成電路成品價格上漲2.4%,廢棄資源綜合利用業價格上漲0.9%,服務消費機器人製造價格上漲0.4%。三是消費潛力有效釋放,帶動有關行業價格按年上漲。提振消費專項行動深入實施,文體類、品質類消費較快增長,工藝美術及禮儀用品製造價格上漲23.3%,運動用球類製造價格上漲4.0%,中樂器製造價格上漲2.0%,營養食品製造價格上漲1.5%。

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