內地1月製造業PMI止跌升至49.2 遜預期 連續第4個月低於50 (09:46) – 20240131 – 即時財經新聞

非製造業商務活動指數連升第2個月,從上月的50.4上升至50.7,高過預期的50.6,亦為9月後最高,當月報51.7。1月份綜合產出指數從上月的50.3上升至50.9,是9月後高,當月報52。

解讀全文如下

一、製造業採購經理指數回升

1月份,製造業PMI小幅回升至49.2%,景氣水準有所改善。

(一)生產指數擴張加快。 生產指數為51.3%,較上月上升1.1個百分點,升至近4個月以來的高點。 從業界來看,食品及酒飲料精製茶、造紙印刷及文教體美娛用品、醫藥等產業生產指數位於53.0%以上,相關產業生產擴張較快;化學原料及化學製品、化學纖維及橡膠塑膠製品及 非金屬礦物製品等產業生產指數位於收縮區間,企業生產活動放緩。

(二)新訂單指數有所回升。 新訂單指數為49.0%,較上月上升0.3個百分點,其中反映外部需求的新出口訂單指數比上月上升1.4個百分點,市場內外需求景氣度有所改善。 從重點產業來看,裝備製造業、高技術製造業和消費品產業新訂單指數分別為50.3%、50.2%和50.3%,均位於臨界點以上;高耗能產業新訂單指數為47.0%,繼續位於臨界 點以下,市場需求仍顯不足。

(三)大型企業PMI升至擴張區間。 大型企業PMI為50.4%,較上月上升0.4個百分點,景氣水準回升,調查結果顯示,超過七成的大型企業產能利用率達到或超過80.0%,企業產能釋放較快;中型企業PMI為48.9% ,比上月上升0.2個百分點,景氣水準有所改善;小型企業PMI為47.2%,較上月下降0.1個百分點,景氣水準較低。

(四)企業預期基本穩定。 受春節假期臨近及部分產業進入傳統生產淡季影響,生產經營活動預期指數為54.0%,繼續位於擴張區間,企業對未來市場發展信心整體穩定。 從業界來看,醫藥、專用設備、汽車、鐵路船舶航太設備等產業生產經營活動預期指數位於56.0%以上較高景氣區間,企業對近期市場發展預期較為樂觀。

二、非製造業商務活動指數擴張已加快

1月份,非製造業商務活動指數為50.7%,較上月上升0.3個百分點,非製造業延續平穩擴張趨勢。

(一)服務業商務活動指數升至擴張區間。 服務業商務活動指數為50.1%,較上月上升0.8個百分點,景氣水準有所回升。 從業界來看,調查的21個產業中有13個位於擴張區間,比上月增加4個,服務業景氣面擴大。 在節慶效應帶動下,居民出行消費意願增強,零售、道路運輸、航空運輸、餐飲等行業商務活動指數升至擴張區間,市場活躍度有所回升;鐵路運輸、郵政、貨幣金融服務等行業商務活動 指數均位於60.0%以上高位景氣區間,業務總量成長較快。 同時,資本市場服務、房地產等產業商務活動指數低位運行,景氣水準偏弱。 從市場預期來看,業務活動預期指數為59.3%,與上月基本持平,繼續位於較高景氣區間,服務業企業對市場發展前景信心穩定。

(二)建築業商務活動指數有所下降。 受冬季低溫天氣及春節假日接近等因素影響,建築業進入施工淡季,商務活動指數為53.9%,較上月下降3.0個百分點。 從市場預期來看,業務活動預期指數為61.9%,持續位於高位景氣區間,顯示建築業企業對市場發展信心較強。

三、綜合PMI產出指數持續擴張

1月份,綜合PMI產出指數為50.9%,較上月上升0.6個百分點,顯示我國企業生產經營活動持續維持擴張。 構成綜合PMI產出指數的製造業生產指數及非製造業商務活動指數分別為51.3%及50.7%。

 

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