USD/JPY faces downward pressure at 146.00 despite the Fed’s unchanged rates. Market focus shifts to upcoming US data, anticipating future Fed rate cuts.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve left the key overnight borrowing rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%.
- However, members of the indicated that they are not yet ready to start lowering interest rates just yet.
- Nevertheless, the price of the currency pair, the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen , moved under downward pressure to the support level of 146.00 despite the strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies following the bank’s announcement.
- The dollar/yen pair is hovering around the 146.90 level at the time of writing this analysis, awaiting the U.S. economic data listed in today’s and tomorrow’s economic calendar.
Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that it is approaching the long-awaited shift towards lowering U.S. interest rates, a sign that its officials have become more confident that inflation has been largely tamed. Its policy statement no longer mentions that it is still considering raising interest rates further. However, officials made clear that the first interest rate cut is likely to come after months. Their statement said they do not believe “the time has come to ease policy” until they gain greater confidence that inflation is moving in a sustainable way toward their 2% target.
Investors and some economists had anticipated the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as early as its next meeting in March. That now appears off the table. Fed Governor Powell said at his press conference: “I do not think it likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the March meeting” to start cutting interest rates. The U.S. central bank left its key rate unchanged at around 5.4%, the highest level in 22 years. But the changes to its statement – compared to its last meeting in December – show it has shifted towards considering rate cuts while maintaining flexibility.
In December, policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that they expect to implement three quarter percentage point interest rate cuts in 2024. However, they have mentioned little since about the likely timing for starting these cuts, and some top officials have stressed the Fed will move cautiously.
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Yesterday, Powell said the U.S. Federal Reserve does not need to see major shifts in inflation data in order to cut interest rates. All it needs to see is a continuation of the slowdown in inflation. Prices have risen at an annual pace of just 2% over the past six months, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge. He added “That doesn’t mean we’re looking for better data, we’re just looking for the continuation of the good data we’ve been getting.” And “we just need to see more of it.”
The Fed’s latest message – that it is getting close to cutting interest rates but does not plan to do so anytime soon – disappointed traders on Wall Street. Losses accelerated in the U.S. stock market after Powell’s press conference began.
According to the daily chart performance below, the price of the currency pair, the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen , is in a relative downward corrective trajectory with the bears gaining more control of the direction if they move the pair towards the support levels of 145.80 and 144.00. From the last level, start buying the pair without risk. On the other hand, and over the same timeframe, the return of the dollar/yen pair towards the resistance level of 148.50 will be important for the bulls to take control and increase expectations towards the key psychological level of 150.00 again. The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen will be affected today by the reaction to the U.S. central bank’s announcement and its comparison with the last announcement by the Bank of Japan. In addition, according to the economic calendar data, the announcement of the number of U.S. jobless claims, the reading of the manufacturing index, and then tomorrow the most important announcement of U.S. jobs figures.
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