The Chinese Communist Party is putting the squeeze on Japan to punish its new Prime Minister for telling the truth. Asked in Parliament on Nov. 7, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi explained that an attack by Beijing on Taiwan could be “survival-threatening” for Japan, potentially triggering a military response. Cue the weekslong campaign of outrage and coercion, as if it were Ms. Takaichi rather than China’s Xi Jinping who is threatening to blow up the status quo.
Beijing began its reply by firing up tensions around disputed and even undisputed islands, dispatching ships and drones. Chinese diplomats assailed Japan, with one threatening, “We have no choice but cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us.”
From so-called wolf-warrior diplomacy, Beijing escalated to economic sanctions. These have been kept informal, but that’s no consolation to the affected Japanese industries.
China told its citizens to avoid all travel to Japan, triggering a sharp and costly decline in tourism. By one estimate, 500,000 airline tickets from China to Japan were canceled in a few days. A ban on Japanese seafood imports also was suddenly reinstated, again on bogus concerns regarding nuclear contamination.
The Journal reports that China’s President Xi spent half of his hourlong phone call with President Trump last week reciting his grievances regarding Japan and Taiwan. More worrying, Mr. Trump reportedly responded by promptly calling Japan’s Ms. Takaichi and telling her not to provoke Beijing over Taiwan.
Nobody wants to provoke a confrontation over Taiwan. But who’s issuing the provocations—the leader explaining how she might respond to an invasion, or the one planning, building toward and threatening that invasion? The Japanese have no interest in a military clash with China, a nuclear-armed superpower. Tokyo might be pushed to that point only if Beijing’s aggression gives it no other choice.
Ms. Takaichi is right that an invasion of Taiwan by Beijing would seriously endanger Japan. The fall of Taiwan would break the first island chain that gives Japan its defensive depth. Should that bulwark become a Chinese bridgehead, critical Japanese shipping lanes would be vulnerable to disruption or blockade. Japan relies on those shipping lanes to import much of its food and energy. The U.S. strategy of open sea lanes and a network of alliances in the Pacific would fall apart.
China’s economic coercion today is an omen of what’s to come should it gain naval control of the region. As has been amply demonstrated against Japan, and Australia before it, the Chinese won’t hesitate to use their economic power to intimidate neighbors—and even nations farther afield. Lithuania learned that the hard way when Beijing effectively embargoed all goods to and from the country earlier this decade.
A diplomatic touch has always been necessary to avoid conflict over Taiwan, but the real danger here isn’t a Japanese statement of reality. It’s Beijing’s growing use of military and economic power to threaten Taiwanese democracy. Mr. Trump will need Japan’s help to ward off the worst of China’s ambitions.
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