Propagandists who support Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro are trying to stoke fears that the fall of the narco-dictator could plunge the country into civil war. They use this argument to justify the survival of an increasingly isolated, authoritarian and unpopular regime. But it doesn’t reflect reality. Far from causing a power vacuum, a transition from Mr. Maduro would create stability and promote democracy. Most Venezuelans, including many in the military, reject the regime. Legitimate democratic leaders—María Corina Machado and President-elect Edmundo González—command extraordinary public support. These factors make a descent into civil conflict unlikely.
Recent polling shows that Venezuelans overwhelmingly reject Mr. Maduro and trust Ms. Machado. According to a November survey conducted among Venezuelans by an international polling firm, 91% of respondents consider the Maduro regime a narco-terrorist state, and 90% believe Mr. González—elected in 2024 with Ms. Machado’s support—is the rightful president, while only about 5% say Mr. Maduro is. Nearly 94% don’t believe there will be a civil war when the regime falls, while only about 1% do.
This isn’t a politically fractured society teetering on the edge of armed confrontation; it’s a country determined to achieve democratic change. This consensus is one of the strongest antidotes to civil conflict. Most of the military, like the rest of Venezuelans, rejects the regime. Members of the armed forces allowed democratic activists to obtain the tally sheets that proved Mr. González’s victory, and our analysis indicates that soldiers voted as the rest of the country did—for Mr. González.
Civil wars often erupt when power collapses and there’s no clear replacement, or when competing factions vie for authority. In Venezuela, the conditions are fundamentally different. Ms. Machado’s broad mandate will guide a unified transition. Her legitimacy is earned, rooted in popular will, and reinforced across diverse social sectors.
Transitions with these characteristics tend to be orderly. Ms. Machado’s acceptance by a national majority reduces uncertainty, discourages factional violence, and channels political energy toward institutional restoration instead of confrontation.
Those who say the regime’s fall would be worse than its persistence ignore the dangers in the status quo. Prolonging the dictatorship carries far greater risks of instability in Venezuela and elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere.
If Mr. Maduro stays in power, the humanitarian crisis will get worse. The regime’s repression and lack of opportunities accelerate poverty, desperation and migration. Preserving the status quo will also mean continued economic collapse. Disastrous policies, the destruction of property rights, and mass corruption have transformed one of Latin America’s richest nations into an economic catastrophe. Mr. Maduro’s continued leadership would also mean Venezuela’s further alignment with the enemies of democracy: The regime is allied with China, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Colombian guerrillas and Cuba. Sustaining an illegitimate government isn’t a formula for stability but a recipe for chronic chaos.
Predictions of vengeful purges or widespread retaliatory violence rely on misconceptions about Venezuelan society. These forecasts assume that the fall of the regime would unleash competing power bases. But Ms. Machado and Mr. González are recognized authorities around whom citizens, institutions and the military can converge. They align with the Venezuelan people’s desire for peaceful democratic restoration and justice rather than revenge. The international community also stands ready to support a lawful, rights-respecting transition to democracy.
The democratic movement in Venezuela isn’t a fringe; it represents the majority of the nation. Ms. Machado isn’t merely an opposition figure but the most trusted political voice in the country. Mr. González isn’t an obscure leader but is recognized as the legitimate president by Venezuelans and democratic nations around the world. The combination of massive popular rejection of the dictatorship and overwhelming support for a democratic alternative creates ideal conditions for a peaceful transition. Small groups of armed criminals may attempt to oppose the new government, but that isn’t civil war—it’s a matter of law enforcement. The democratic government will act guided by the law, firmly and without tolerance for criminal activity.
With Ms. Machado and Mr. González’s leadership and public legitimacy, Venezuela is positioned for reconciliation and the restoration of democratic institutions, territorial control and governance. This includes plans to address uncertainty and ensure security from the outset of the new government.
The end of Mr. Maduro’s narco-terrorist state will mark the beginning of Venezuela’s return to democracy, order, prosperity—and hope.
Mr. de la Cruz is director of the office of President-elect Edmundo González and María Corina Machado in Washington.
