Market snapshot
- ASX 200: FLAT at 8,614 points
- Australian dollar: -0.1% at 65.2 US cents
- S&P 500: +0.7% to 6,813 points (closed for Thanksgiving)
- Nasdaq: +0.9% to 25,237 points (closed for Thanksgiving)
- FTSE: FLAT at 9,693 points
- EuroStoxx: +0.1% to 575 points
- Spot gold: +0.7% at $US4,184/ounce
- Brent crude: +0.3% at $US63.57/barrel
- Iron ore: +0.1% to $US106.63/tonne
- Bitcoin: +0.2% to $US91,550
Prices current around 4:45pm AEDT
That’s a wrap
OK that’s all from the team today.
I’ll be logging off now… but logging back on later to see whether futures trading has kicked off again.
Why, you ask?
Because I’m a finance tragic.
Loading
London reacts to futures trading halt
Currency traders in London react to CME Group data centre meltdown.
“The outage hit at around 02:50 GMT during an already fragile liquidity window around the Thanksgiving holiday and heading into month end, leading market makers to widen bid‑ask spreads to account for the sudden liquidity vacuum,” InTouch Capital Markets currency analyst Kieran Williams said.
“While prices continued to trade, the breakdown in the EBS engine and Treasury futures reduced the depth and efficiency of liquidity, likely increasing execution costs and undermining normal price discovery just as month end flows attempted to clear.”
That’s very technical traders were faced with a jump in the cost of their transactions in a range of products.
There’s also a concern that “thin markets” raise the risk of extra volatility, or big swings at the open of trade.
Wall Street open muddied by data void
The CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) operates futures markets for both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 on Wall Street.
“Due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers, our markets are currently halted,” the firm posted on its website.
“Support is working to resolve the issue in the near term and will advise clients of Pre-Open details as soon as they are available.”
Given it’s the middle of the night in the US, it’s likely few people on Wall Street know there is a problem.
The issue does not appear to have affected Asian trade in any material way.
“The main risk is that once it comes back online,” Marcus Today senior portfolio manager Henry Jennings told the ABC.
“It’s certainly an embarrassment for the CME Group.”
He said the lack of financial markets data available, due to trading being halted, means market participants’ ability to take a view on the market will be affected.
He said the extent of the impact on Wall Street’s opening on Friday will depend on the volume of trade going through post-Thanksgiving Day.
Global financial markets flying blind
Commodities futures and options trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been halted.
CME Group, which operates the futures markets posted on social media that it was due to a “technical issue at a data centre”.
“Due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers, our markets are currently halted,” CME Group said in a statement posted on X.
The company said it was working to fix the issue in the near-term.
The data gives traders across the world an idea of how Wall Street will open up tonight (Australian time).
The figures are crucial for investors to gain an insight into trading activity in the “future”.
Trump announces major new stance on migration
US President Donald Trump said his administration will work to permanently pause migration from all “Third World Countries” to allow the US system to fully recover.
We’ll keep across this developing story for you here on the business blog.
Reporting with Reuters
Corporate Travel Management embroiled in overcharging scandal
One of Australia’s leading travel businesses, Corporate Travel Management, is embroiled in an overcharging scandal potentially worth more than $100 million.
Here’s a piece from ABC reporter Liam Walsh.
Futures trading too hot to handle
Exchange operator CME Group said trading in derivative markets was halted due to a cooling issue at data centres.
“Support is working to resolve the issue in the near term and will advise clients of Pre-Open details as soon as they are available,” CME said in a statement.
Futures trading for the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq along with foreign exchange products were affected.
Reporting with Reuters
Interest rates outlook supporting Australian dollar
Market expectations are moving further against RBA cuts, while Federal Reserve rate cut prospects are increasing.
This is providing support for the Aussie dollar.
It’s been comfortably sitting above 64 US cents for days now.
FBAA speaks up on APRA borrowing rules
The Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) has commented on APRA’s new lending rules.
“This is a very blunt tool that has potential to hurt some groups more than others,” regulatory compliance specialist David Carson said.
“APRA has effectively decided you can’t live in a home that costs more than six times your current income unless you have a very large deposit.
“A household with an annual income of $100,000 would be restricted to a loan of $600,000.
With national median property prices closing in on the $900,000 mark these rules are definitely going to bite hardest on those seeking to enter the market or looking to upgrade if they don’t have substantial equity.
“It poses a very real risk that APRA may be putting unnecessary barriers in place for aspiring homeowners.”
Is an interest rate cut still possible?
AMP has not ruled out the possibility of another RBA interest rate cut.
“… we think another RBA rate cut next year is still possible but will require a run of softer inflation numbers back below target and higher unemployment,” the superannuation and investment firm said.
“Given the recent run of data, we are not particularly confident!”
Update
How can Wall Street consider the appointment of a Trump flunky as Fed Chair be in any way positive?
It would be the kiss of death for US credibility (and probably their economy as well)
– Stan
G’day Stan,
Here are two more questions:
- Will markets view an obviously dovish Federal Reserve as the dawn of a new heyday?
- Or will the Federal Reserve credibility be so tarnished that financial markets will meltdown, unsure of anything anymore?
Federal Reserve hot seat up for grabs
AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver pens a note most Fridays.
Here’s an excerpt from this week’s note, focusing on the battle for control of the US Federal Reserve.
The battle for the Fed may soon start to hot up.
President Trump’s desire for lower rates is well known, and reports indicate he will soon announce the next Fed Chair to succeed Jerome Powell.
The three main contenders are current Fed Governor Waller, former Governor Warsh and White House National Economic director Hassett (of Dow 36,000 fame).
Waller and Warsh would be seen as less of a threat to Fed independence, but Hassett would be seen as a threat given his closeness to Trump, and he is thought to be the front runner.
If he is confirmed (and Trump may change his mind) it may lead to renewed concerns about the Fed’s inflation fighting credentials.
It may not be a problem initially particularly if the US economy is still cooling but could become a concern over time and may further support demand for gold as a hedge against “currency debasement”.
This issue also comes at a time when the concerns about weak jobs and inflation have been dividing the Fed with Fed hawks expressing their desire to leave rates on hold next month given the inflation concerns (and possibly also to send a signal to Trump that they won’t just roll over to his demands).
Lately the hawks have gone a bit quiet again possibly to allow more room for Powell and to avoid perceptions of a “crisis of confidence” at the Fed but at least in the near term ongoing signs of softer jobs, a weak consumer and okayish inflation readings in the last week probably leave it on track to cut again next month with the market now putting the probability of a cut at 82%.
This has been a big factor helping shares rebound although concerns about Fed independence may resurface at some point.
Global backdrop demands constant attention: RBA
The RBA’s Head of International Department, Penelope Smith, gave a speech this week.
The title: How Development in International Financial Markets Shape Financial Conditions in Australia.
Some highlights #ICYMI:
- It’s also been a year where policy uncertainty and market confidence have coexisted in extraordinary ways.
- Noting the recent market volatility, this is something we continue to monitor closely.
- In 2025, compressed equity risk premia and credit spreads meant that financial conditions in Australia were easier than otherwise.
“… the current global backdrop demands constant attention. As April’s events reminded us, we need to be prepared for potential episodes of volatility and potential market dislocation.”
Interest rate sensitivities
Funny how different countries have different inflation “targets.” Japan at 2.8 is “well above” their 2% target so everyone says they need to hike. Whereas 2.8 would have been good for the RBA and everyone would have been calling for a cut ! Why is there such a disparity in targets?
– Phillip
Thanks for the comment/question, Phillip.
Global central banks are prioritising price growth stability and they all range between 2% 3% or thereabouts.
Why individual banks differ? No idea.
The BoJ differs slightly from other central banks in that policy makers are likely still traumatised from battling decades of deflation and zero interest rates.
Normalising interest rates seems to be a priority for Japan.
Markets sea of calm
Both the Australian dollar and stock market are dead flat at 1:50pm AEDT.
Not often you see that.
Loading
Credit growth shows no signs of slowing
It seems Australians’ love affair of credit is showing no signs of slowing.
Private sector credit growth rose 0.7%m/m in October, according to RBA data.
This was slightly above what some economists had forecast.
Housing credit (+0.6%m/m) was firm.
Within the housing category investor credit (+0.9%m/m) lead owner-occupied credit (+0.5%m/m).
Business credit was also firm, picking up to 0.8%m/m while personal credit growth moderated to 0.2%m/m.
“Credit growth momentum shows no signs of slowing, as lagged effects of RBA easing are expected to remain supportive well into 2026,” JP Morgan economist Tom Ryan noted.
“The expanded 5% deposit scheme — which came into effect in October — is also expected to boost owner-occupied credit growth.
“This impulse is not yet evident in the data, but should build in coming prints, with owner-occupied lending declining marginally in October (0.53%m/m from 0.54% in September).”
Regulator moves on property market
John Lonsdale, the banking industry regulator’s big kahuna, has finally taken aim at the Australian economy’s biggest threat — an overheated property market that once again is accelerating.
Give this brilliant piece from the ABC’s Chief Business Correspondent Ian Verrender a read.
Australian bond yield hits 4.52%
You pay taxes so the government can pay for things.
Unfortunately, your tax dollars are not always enough.
So the government needs to issue bonds to raise money in the debt market.
The government agency responsible for this, the AOFM, auctioned $1 billion in Australian government securities before midday today (2035 expiry).
Western Australia also engaged in a large bond issuance this morning.
The sales have sent yields higher.
Yields move inversely to prices.
The Australian 10-Year Bond Yield has risen 2 basis points to 4.52%.
Market snapshot
- ASX 200: +0.1% to 8,628 points
- Australian dollar: FLAT at 65.3 US cents
- S&P 500: +0.7% to 6,813 points (closed for Thanksgiving)
- Nasdaq: +0.9% to 25,237 points (closed for Thanksgiving)
- FTSE: FLAT at 9,693 points
- EuroStoxx: +0.1% to 575 points
- Spot gold: +0.7% at $US4,186/ounce
- Brent crude: FLAT at $US63.39/barrel
- Iron ore: -0.2% to $US103.10/tonne
- Bitcoin: -0.2% to $US91,140
Prices current around 12:15pm AEDT
